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Saturday 10 February 2024 17:46, UK
Goals at Luton, Darwin Nunez offsides, Morgan Gibbs-White to score and Enzo Fernandez shots are on Jones Knows' betting radar this weekend.
Being wrong is part of this job. It comes with the territory. It was one of those very wrong weekends.
Newcastle vs Luton to have 11 or more corners - there were 10 corners.
Crystal Palace to avoid defeat at Brighton - they lost 4-1 having been 3-0 down at the break.
And, finally, 50 or more booking points in Sheffield United vs Aston Villa. There was one booking in a non-event of a thrashing.
Total wipe-out.
It made me ponder how wrong would you rather be?
When it comes to betting, your stake goes down the drain whether you are slightly wrong or very wrong.
The overall result was just one point lost, the same as last weekend where we were just a Curtis Jones shot away from landing an 8/1 winner after landing two legs of the treble in what was some, gets my trumpet out, superb value seeking punting.
In theory it shouldn't matter how wrong you are but oh boy it does - purely for confidence reasons.
I've never really understood why managers don't like rolling the dice in a game when 3-0 or 4-0 down. Surely risking a thrashing to try and get back into the game makes sense as it doesn't matter if you lose 10-2 or 4-0, it's only three points lost.
But the psychological aspect is key isn't it.
Even someone like me who has been punting, rather successfully, for a long time has been questioning my decision making when eyeing up some angles this week. It's like when a batsmen who is on a run of ducks thinks the ball fizzing his way is the size of a ping pong ball or when a striker runs through on goal and can only see the goalkeeper.
The mind, eh? Such a powerful beast. We must stick to the process. Power through that variance.
There are three bets to attack this weekend.
Luton side are playing with a bravery and intensity that is taking the Premier League by storm and catching oppositions cold. Everyone seems to know their roles in their unique man-for-man pressing setup and their attackers are playing with great confidence in front of goal.
Over their last five Premier League games there have been 24 goals scored, almost five goals per game while Sheffield United are averaging 4.57 goals in their matches across their last seven games. Draws really are no good for Sheffield United in their predicament, so I'm fully expecting a goal-heavy encounter.
No Premier League player is averaging more offsides per 90 this season (1.27) than Darwin Nunez as his eagerness to break offside traps has seen him flagged offside 22 times in his last 15 starts. That included being caught by Burnley's trap twice in the reverse fixture in December. Vincent Kompany's team do like to play a high line - only five teams have caught more players offside more than this season than the Clarets (47).
All this adds up to Nunez's offside probabilities looking very strong at the 10/11 with Sky Bet offered for one or more.
Enzo Fernandez's raw average of 1.99 shots per 90 in the Premier League is enough on its own to make the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him having two or more shots an appealing wager but when you throw in the likely one-sided game-state vs Crystal Palace along with his increased confidence levels you've got yourself a blinding spot of value to attack.
As hinted above, there is a clear trend developing that these types of games down at the bottom are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are spitting out for the bookmaker lines. Of the 25 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 3.04 per game - above what has been expected by the market. And 40 per cent of those 25 games have seen four or more goals scored. The goal lines are worth attacking with the 9/2 on offer for five or more goals a sensible play considering all the evidence.
Morgan Gibbs-White ran amok playing in his preferred free role in the reverse fixture between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, racking up an expected goals tally of 0.33 from his three shots at goal.
I'm adamant we're dealing with a Champions League level player in time and his goalscorer prices remain hard to ignore with 13/2 anytime available with Sky Bet. He has scored twice since Nuno Espirito Santo took the reins and we have the added bonus of him being the likely penalty taker, which are being awarded at a rate of 0.29 per game this season meaning that 13/2 is a slice of value just on those grounds.
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