Premier League relegation battle 2025/26: Odds, table, fixtures and predictions
Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham are the clubs currently in danger of Premier League relegation alongside Wolves and Burnley, with time running out - here, we look at each team's fixtures and probability of going down...
Tuesday 14 April 2026 13:33, UK
Opta say Tottenham now have a 49.5 per cent chance of being relegated from the Premier League after another Spurs defeat left them languishing in 18th as the race to survive in the Premier League took another turn.
New boss Roberto De Zerbi could do very little to prevent Spurs' seventh loss in eight Premier League matches when his first game in charge of the north London club ended in a 1-0 defeat in Sunderland.
Spurs had travelled to the North East already in 18th place after West Ham had thrashed Wolves 4-0 on Friday night to further deepen the reality of a potential drop for Tottenham.
West Ham now have a two-point buffer on Spurs and their victory over Wolves means Rob Edwards' side could have their relegation confirmed as early as next weekend with a loss and other results don't go their way.
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Leeds opened up a six-point gap on the drop zone as they ended a 45-year wait for a league win at Old Trafford to beat a 10-man Manchester United 2-1 on Monday Night Football. Daniel Farke's side have the more favourable fixtures, on paper, among themselves, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham, West Ham and Burnley.
Forest followed up their vital win at Tottenham with a draw against Champions League-chasing Aston Villa.
Burnley, though, are winless in six, 12 points off safety and look all but certain to join the nearly relegated Wolves in a return to the Championship.
With all six teams fighting to avoid relegation, Sky Sports keeps track of the battle for survival…
The run-in
Based on current positions, Leeds have the "easiest" run of the teams at the bottom with their next six opponents having an average position of 16th.
When are the six-pointers?
Farke's Leeds will play all of the bottom three in the run-in, while four of Tottenham's next six will be against sides currently in the top 10. West Ham have the "toughest" run on paper though, but they also take on Leeds on the final day at the London Stadium.
Here are the games that could be key in deciding the relegation battle:
- April 18: Leeds vs Wolves & Forest vs Burnley
- April 25: Wolves vs Tottenham
- May 2: Leeds vs Burnley
- May 9: Tottenham vs Leeds
- May 24: Burnley vs Wolves & West Ham vs Leeds
The supercomputer's relegation predictions...
According to Opta, both Wolves and Burnley have a 100 per cent chance of being relegated. After Leeds' win at Man Utd, their chance of being relegated has dropped to 1.53 per cent.
Opta say Forest, meanwhile, have a 10.11 per cent chance of dropping down the Championship. West Ham remains a little likelier at 38.78 per cent.
How many points could be needed?
The Opta supercomputer expects 38 points to secure Premier League survival. In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation.
Last season, 26 points would have been enough to stay up as an exceptionally poor bottom three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made an immediate return to the Championship.
Spurs took advantage of the trio's weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League as they finished a dismal 17th on 38 points - 13 points above 18th-placed Leicester.
But that luxury for Tottenham is not there this season as they face the very real possibility of relegation to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1977.
With the teams involved in the relegation fight significantly stronger than last season, the 40-point mark could well be being eyed up.
Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team Premier League era - Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) - the latter holding the record for the team relegated with the most points with 42.
15th: Leeds
Leeds are now unbeaten in their last three in the Premier League. Their current run represents an upturn in form, having lost back-to-back home games prior to their current spell.
Leeds' win at Old Trafford, while significant, represents just their second win on the road this season, so their home games will still be of grave importance to avoid the drop.
16th: Nottingham Forest
An away win at Spurs before the international break and a draw against Aston Villa mean that Vitor Pereira's side have boosted their chances of survival.
However, they remain in the Europa League, with a second leg against Porto still to play, so an intense fixture schedule list could continue to pose problems.
17th: West Ham
West Ham looked doomed at the start of the year before a huge win at rivals Tottenham kickstarted their survival bid.
Nuno's Hammers are now on a little bit of a roll. Wins over Sunderland, Burnley, Fulham and Wolves in their last 10 - a run that has included just two defeats has helped them climb out of the bottom three.
They'll be hoping it's good enough form to avoid relegation for the first time since 2011.
18th: Tottenham
"It would be the shock of the century. It would be absolutely mind-blowing to think that they could disappear out of this league, but I don't think they will."
Even if Gary Neville is confident the Premier League ever-presents will not be relegated, their form says otherwise, with Spurs now in 18th.
De Zerbi didn't have the instant impact he would have so greatly desired with Spurs still yet to see three points in 2026.
19th: Burnley
Burnley look likely for an immediate return to the Championship.
Scott Parker's side are 12 points from safety and have only won one of their last 23 league games.
20th: Wolves
Wolves' fate is all but sealed. Edwards' side will be relegated if they lose at Leeds and other results don't go their way.
The results which would then relegate them would be West Ham avoiding defeat away at Crystal Palace, and Forest picking up at least a point in their next two home games against Aston Villa and Burnley.
