Championship slow starters: Does it matter come May?
Friday 12 August 2016 16:19, UK
Pre-season optimism can disappear just as fast it grew. Just ask fans of Aston Villa, Barnsley, Brentford and Wigan, all knocked out of the EFL Cup just days after losing their opening Sky Bet Championship game of the season.
But with nine months, 269 days and 45 games remaining, they need not be concerned just yet.
Statistics from the last 10 Championship campaigns show that a fast start does not always result in promotion come May, and that several clubs have tasted promotion glory after poor openings.
Going back to the 2006/07 season, none of the 30 promoted sides won all of their opening five games, and only seven won four out of five.
In fact, 12 of the 30 promoted sides picked up less than eight points from a possible 15, and six won only one of their opening five games.
Newcastle, still favourites for the Championship title, were brought down to earth last week with a 1-0 opening-day defeat by Fulham at Craven Cottage, but they only have to look down the road for an example of how bad starts can mean very little at the end of the season.
Having been relegated from the Premier League with just 15 points in 2005/06, Sunderland started the 2006/07 Championship season with four straight defeats under Niall Quinn, before Roy Keane took over and steered them three wins on the trot and an eventual promotion as champions.
In a similar twist, Derby started the same season with just one win from five, but were promoted via the play-offs in May with a win over West Brom at Wembley, while the following season Hull also tasted play-off final victory after taking just five points from their first 15 available, and just 16 from their first 42.
In 2008/09, Burnley beat Sheffield United in the play-off final despite winning one of their first five games, and Blackpool did the same 12 months later.
Brian McDermott's Reading pulled off a similarly impressive turnaround in 2011/12, going up as champions despite winning only five of their opening 17 games, and Bournemouth won just three of their opening 10 games on the way to the title in 2014/15 with Eddie Howe.
On average, promoted sides have picked up only nine points from a possible 15 in the Championship.
Despite the statistics, Newcastle boss Rafa Benitez was firm in his view of their disappointing start, claiming it is a wake-up call for his side.
"The only positive is it is the beginning of the season and we can wake up. At least everyone has to realise it has to be like this for the rest of the season."
The fact only two sides have hit the 100-point mark in the Championship in the past 10 years says it all. The Sky Bet EFL is a marathon, not a sprint, and Messrs Benitez, Di Matteo and Co can take some comfort in that.
