Norwich, Sheffield United, Aston Villa strikers lead the chase
Thursday 21 February 2019 18:06, UK
The race for the Golden Boot is as tight as the one for promotion in the Sky Bet Championship so who will prevail?
Norwich's Teemu Pukki edged ahead of Sheffield United's Billy Sharp at the weekend, scoring twice in a 4-0 thumping of Bolton to take his tally to 23 league goals for the season and help his side back to the top of the table.
Sharp was left on the bench as the Blades thrashed Reading by the same scoreline but remains a frontrunner for the individual prize, having also surpassed last season's winning haul - the 21 goals netted by Matej Vydra for Derby - with 13 games still to play.
Aston Villa are nine points off the play-off places but Tammy Abraham has hit the 20-goal mark, while Birmingham's Che Adams (19 goals) and Brentford's Neal Maupay (18 goals) are also in the hunt for the personal accolade.
Maupay and Pukki have taken the most shots so far in the Championship this season - 98 and 95 respectively - but six-yard predator Sharp, who has the best minutes-per-goal ratio, is the most efficient.
The Blades skipper, who last month became the leading goalscorer in English league football this century, has had only 63 attempts but scored 35 per cent of them.
West Brom's Dwight Gayle has played the fewest minutes of the contenders - 1,757 compared to Pukki's 2,662 and Sharp's 2,278 - but has an impressive shot conversion rate of 31 per cent.
Opta describes a 'big chance' as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter".
Abraham (29) and Sharp (27) are deemed to have benefited from more big chances than Pukki (20) and the Blades man is again out in front when it comes to making them count, burying 70 per cent of them. Further highlighting Sharp's knack for being in the right place for a side that typically bides its time to craft opportunities, 86 per cent of his goals have come from these so-called 'big chances'.
Penalties are always considered 'big chances' and Abraham will hope to bolster his overall total from the spot, having netted four this term. Sharp (one scored) has shared Blades duties with David McGoldrick, while Norwich have struggled to find a winning formula, Pukki missing from 12 yards along with Mario Vrancic and Marco Stiepermann.
Sky Bet make Pukki the 6/4 favourite, with Sharp priced at 9/4.
Abraham is deemed a 7/2 shot, with Maupay (7/1) and Adams (8/1) further behind, while Jay Rodriguez (12/1) is seen as a better punt than West Brom team-mate Gayle (16/1).
