Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Manchester United backed to win on derby day

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the weekend Premier League action.

Coventry City vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!

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There will be no panic at Coventry despite three loses to start the season - and rightly so. However, only one promoted team from 12 to have lost their first three Premier League games have managed to survive. When losing becomes a habit, it's a hard one to chuck. The 2/1 with Sky Bet about Coventry finishing bottom of the pile could become a popular bet the longer this losing streak continues.

Brighton have the highest expected goals return, most open play crosses and most big chances in the Premier League this season. The 17/20 with Sky Bet for the away win will be a popular play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Manchester United vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!

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There are lingering doubt about Manchester United's long-term prospects under Michael Carrick, mostly due to their worrying defensive metrics.

However, Carrick has shown a knack of getting big results against big clubs.

In eight matches against the traditional "big six" and Aston Villa, the United boss has won seven and drawn the other. To put up an average of 2.25 goals scored per 90 across those eight matches is a standout metric which isn't being given enough respect by the market here. United are a 21/10 shot with Sky Bet to win this one which implies a win probability of 33 per cent. That feels low considering home advantage and that Carrick record. Home win it is.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Leeds United vs Newcastle United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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Newcastle's draw with Bournemouth was a little reminder that this rebuild under Matthias Jaissle could be quite volatile at times. The Toon have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three and have faced the most shots of any team this season, hinting at an overperformance.

Leeds are a reliable team to bet on. You know exactly what you're going to get. Usually that means Daniel Farke's team avoiding defeat which is what they've done in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games. They defend with great organisation and attack with authority. They are 11/8 with Sky Bet to win.

I do like that home win but I also like the prospects of Matias Fernandez-Pardo drawing cards for Newcastle. He could be in line for his first start having come off the bench in the last two games in all competitions. The £51m signing was Lille's main man in Ligue 1 last season and drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of action - an impressive strike-rate.

This leaves Ethan Ampadu vulnerable to card at 3/1 with Sky Bet based on his record of being booked 10 times last season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Ethan Ampadu to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows' best bets...

• Vitaly Janelt to make +2 fouls (7/4 with Sky Bet)
• First half under 1.5 goals & under 3.5 total goals in Chelsea vs Hull (Evens with Sky Bet)
• Ethan Ampadu to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)

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