Scottish Premiership title race conundrum: Rangers are the form horse, Celtic are favourites but Hearts lead the way
Rangers are six points behind Hearts and could go level on points with second-placed Celtic with win at Celtic Park; Danny Röhl's side have taken more points than anyone since he was appointed; Watch Celtic vs Rangers live on Sky Sports on January 3, kick off 12.30pm
Wednesday 31 December 2025 18:26, UK
Three clubs. One trophy. And a title race that’s refusing to follow the old script.
Momentum is swinging, pressure is mounting and every fixture now carries the weight of a season - especially the one this Saturday.
Celtic vs Rangers at Celtic Park, live on Sky Sports. An Old Firm clash that will have huge ramifications on this three-way battle for the title.
Hearts' fearless challenge from outside the Old Firm has created a run-in rich with jeopardy and one showered with excitement that you can't take your eyes off. Are they on their way to ending Celtic and Rangers' 40-year top-flight dominance?
As the campaign reaches a defining moment in the season, it's Hearts who sit at the summit - leading the way on 41 points - with Celtic and Rangers somewhat fumbling in behind but will chase hard until the final kick.
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Celtic, on 38 points, are driven by expectation as much as ambition. Rangers, three points further back on 35, know better than most how quickly momentum can swing in this league. It's them who are the form horse.
Since Danny Röhl's appointment, Rangers have taken more points than anyone across their 11 league games, racking up eight wins, two draws and a solitary defeat to Hearts.
Seasons can turn on moments - and for Rangers, Saturday's derby clash could be one of them. After months of turbulence, transition and searching for consistency, the chance to reset the title picture is suddenly right in front of them.
Victory over Celtic wouldn't just be about bragging rights or momentum, it would catapult Rangers firmly into the title picture.
Rangers on a Röhl
Next five league fixtures:
Celtic (a) - Jan 3 - live on Sky Sports
Aberdeen (h) - Jan 6 - live on Sky Sports
Aberdeen (a) - Jan 11 - live on Sky Sports
Dundee (h) - Jan 25
Hibernian (a) - Feb 1
"Rangers are out of it, they are finished and can forget about it, 12 points is too much to claw back."
For Kris Boyd, his former team's title hopes ended after their 2-1 defeat to Hearts on December 21. However, just two games later, having taken six points from six and both Hearts and Celtic slipping up, the picture is looking far rosier.
Rangers' revival under Röhl isn't loud. It isn't flashy. But it is increasingly effective.
After a turbulent spell under Russell Martin, where control often came at the expense of defensive security, Rangers are now winning games by becoming harder to beat. The chaos has been dialled down. The risks have been managed. And crucially, the goals against column has tightened dramatically. Just seven goals shipped in 11 games tells its own story.
Under Röhl, Rangers concede far less - not by accident, but by design. Where Martin's side were vulnerable in transition, Röhl's Rangers look organised, patient and far more selective about when they commit numbers forward.
Rangers may not yet be the finished article going forward, but they are building a platform that travels well in a title race: defensive resilience, game management and the ability to punish opponents in decisive moments.
Celtic are wobbling but remain favourites for title - why?
Next five league fixtures:
Rangers (h) - Jan 3 - live on Sky Sports
Dundee Utd (h) - Jan 10
Falkirk (a) - Jan 14
Hearts (a) - Jan 25 - live on Sky Sports
Falkirk (h) - Feb 1
Logic suggests the Scottish Premiership title race has tilted away from Celtic. The form line certainly does. Five defeats in six league matches under Wilfried Nancy. A three-point gap to leaders Hearts. More questions than answers as winter bites. And yet, when you check the bookmakers' prices on the title race, one thing hasn't shifted: Celtic remain favourites with Sky Bet.
Whether that will prove right or wrong come the end of the season, only time will tell. But bookmakers don't price emotion. They price probability. And in this title race, probability still leans heavily towards Celtic - even amid the turbulence.
The bookmakers are banking on institutional memory in that this is a club that knows how to win a title when the pressure tightens. And, crucially, the underlying data also offers comfort.
Despite the defeats under Nancy, Celtic are still controlling matches and chance creation hasn't collapsed - conversion has. Also, defensive lapses have been costly. Across those seven matches, Celtic's expected goals supremacy per 90 - a metric which calculates expected goals for minus expected goals against - is at a very impressive +1.38.
To put some context on that figure, Hearts' xG supremacy is +0.28 over their last seven games and Rangers' is at +0.76.
Celtic don't look like champions right now. That much is clear. But the upside is still there for Nancy based on those performance metrics.
Hearts still lead the way: Catch us if you can
Next five league fixtures:
Livingston (h) - Jan 3
Dundee (a) - Jan 11 - live on Sky Sports
St Mirren (h) - Jan 14
Celtic (h) - Jan 25 - live on Sky Sports
Dundee United (a) - Jan 31 - live on Sky Sports
When Tony Bloom became involved with Hearts, his prediction was to win the title within 10 years. He's on the verge of delivering that unlikely promise well ahead of schedule. It's taken just one transfer window for his Jamestown Analytics model to work its magic.
Alexandros Kyziridis and Cláudio Braga weren't brought in to make statements or create noise. They were brought in to solve problems. And in doing so, Hearts may have exposed how far behind the curve much of Scottish football still is when it comes to recruitment. Hearts have targeted skillsets, not CVs. They've looked at what their system needs and gone shopping in markets others ignore.
Between them Braga (12) and Kyziridis (9) have been responsible for 21 goal involvements this season, while team-mate Lawrence Shankland has scored nine goals and created two assists.
Hearts, who are the league's top goalscorers with 38 goals bagged, will need Braga, Kyziridis and Shankland to continue to run hot into 2026. Defeats against Aberdeen and Hibernian have opened the door for the chasers but a record of four wins from four games this season against the Old Firm has meant Hearts have kept the big boys at arms length.
Holding off the Old Firm over an entire season though is a unique challenge. In a race where pressure grows by the week, Hearts' ability to keep finding the net may be the difference between daring to dream - and delivering something truly historic.
