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Analysis

Scottish Premiership title race: Hearts still top, Celtic in touching distance - but Opta back Rangers to win it!

Hearts are one point clear of Rangers at the top of the Premiership, with Celtic a further two behind; it is a Sky Sports double header this weekend as Celtic host Falkirk on Saturday, with Hearts away to rivals Hibs the following day; Rangers also play on Sunday, at home to Motherwell

Will Celtic, Hearts or Rangers win the Scottish Premiership title?
Image: Will Celtic, Hearts or Rangers win the Scottish Premiership title?

Five games. Three teams. One trophy.

The Scottish Premiership post-split fixtures kick off this weekend, with more drama guaranteed in a season like no other.

Celtic could move level on points at the top on Saturday, if they beat Falkirk at home, live on Sky Sports.

Saturday 25th April 5:00pm Kick off 5:30pm

Sunday will then see Rangers take on Motherwell, before another big game live on Sky Sports as leaders Hearts head to Hibernian for the final Edinburgh derby of the season.

Sunday 26th April 3:30pm Kick off 4:30pm

Are Rangers favourites? The supercomputer says YES!

Hearts lead the way with five games to go. Rangers are one point behind, with Celtic a further two adrift.

Despite Derek McInnes' side leading the way for the majority of the season, the bookies now have Rangers as title favourites, and Opta's supercomputer agrees.

They believe Danny Röhl's side are most likely to finish top on May 16, with McInnes' side in second and Celtic third.

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The Hoops have not ended a season outside the top two since 1995, while the last time Hearts split the Old Firm and finished second was in 2006, and last went one better by finishing top in 1960.

Over the coming weeks, both will hope to prove the supercomputer and bookies wrong.

What do the history books say?

Celtic came out on top in the last three way title battle in 1998
Image: Celtic beat Hearts and Rangers to the title after a three-way race in 1998

There have been some three-way title tussles over the years. Perhaps the most genuine was in 1983. Back then, Dundee United won their final six games to seal their only top-flight trophy, finishing one point ahead of Celtic and Aberdeen.

The closest thing since that was in 1998 when, like this season, Hearts, Celtic and Rangers were all in the mix.

However, a derby defeat for Hearts saw them take two points from five games, while Rangers also struggled, and it was Celtic - despite a defeat to Rangers - who prevailed by two points. That ended Rangers' bid for a historic 10-in-a-row.

Hearts last split the Old Firm in 2006 when Rangers finished third
Image: Hearts last split the Old Firm in 2006 when Rangers finished third

Going back 12 years earlier, Hearts missed out again. With two games to go, they were in the mix with Celtic and Dundee United. However, United lost their penultimate game to drop out. Hearts needed just a draw to win it but lost on the final day, allowing Celtic to take it on goal difference after beating St Mirren 5-0.

These three-way races have been few and far between - both Hearts and Rangers fans will hope history doesn't repeat itself. Meanwhile, Celtic fans might dare to dream.

Will home advantage really help Celtic?

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - MARCH 01: Celtic manager Martin O'Neill during a William Hill Premiership match between Rangers and Celtic at Ibrox Stadium, on March 01, 2026, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Alan Harvey / SNS Group)
Image: Martin O'Neill is in his second spell in charge at Celtic this season

Celtic's journey to this point in the title race has been chaotic. Three managers, following the departure of Brendan Rodgers and the sacking of Wilfried Nancy after 33 days, meaning Martin O'Neill has had to try and salvage a disastrous campaign.

They're in the race now, so can their home form give them an advantage? The champions will host their two title rivals at Parkhead, where they have won four of their last five league games. As for Rangers, they have won once in their last five games on the road, and Hearts have taken one point from their last five away games.

Celtic are the only title challenger to have three home games during the run-in, with Hearts and Rangers on the road three times in their last five games.

All that said, this season has been full of twists and turns, so there is a caveat. That is their results against each other in the league.

Hearts went to Celtic Park and won in December, Rangers also won their only trip to Glasgow's East End, ahead of their next trip on May 10 - live on Sky Sports.

Hearts also beat Rangers at Tynecastle ahead of the sides' meeting there on May 4, live on Sky Sports.

Sun or spot in the final - what's the best way to prepare for the run-in?

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - DECEMBER 21: Hearts Head Coach Derek McInnes (L) shakes hands with Rangers Head Coach Danny Rohl during a William Hill Premiership match between Heart of Midlothian and Rangers at Tynecastle Park, on December 21, 2025, in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Rob Casey / SNS Group)
Image: Hearts and Rangers enjoyed a week of warm-weather training

While Hearts and Rangers took advantage of a free week to train in the Spanish sunshine, Celtic were at Hampden Park booking their place in the final of the Scottish Cup.

Derek McInnes viewed the Jambos' trip as an opportunity to enjoy some "calm" before the storm of an Edinburgh derby critical to their hopes of winning their first top-flight title since 1960.

It was a similar sentiment from Danny Röhl who saw it as "little bit of time for recovery, but also to work on some small details" while taking the chance to "refresh the mind".

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Rangers captain James Tavernier speaks to Sky Sports News about the dramatic Scottish Premiership title race, his Ibrox future and more

Martin O'Neill guided Celtic to a 6-2 win against St Mirren, meaning they are potentially six games from a league and cup double, which seemed unlikely a few months ago.

But while it was an emphatic result, four of their goals were scored in extra-time. Does the fact that it was a draw after 90 minutes give Celtic fans cause for concern?

Celtic's players celebrate their Scottish Cup semi-final win over St Mirren
Image: Celtic's players celebrate their Scottish Cup semi-final win over St Mirren

Could fans want their team to LOSE?

Social media has been rife with fan predictions over what could happen if this dramatic title race does go down to the final day.

There is, of course, a chance that all three teams could still be in contention at kick-off on May 16.

Celtic will host Hearts while Rangers are away to Falkirk, the side they beat 6-3 in their final match before the split.

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Celtic have yet to beat Hearts this season, having lost their last meeting at home

But, if the Hoops are out of contention, will they be cheering on their opponents at Parkhead?

With 13 titles in the last 14 seasons, there is no doubt the fans will be hurting. What would hurt more is their Old Firm rivals taking the title.

Could we see the green and white backing maroon and white to claim their first title in 40 years?

At the end of a season of the unexpected, anything could be possible.

Initial post-split games to be shown live on Sky Sports

  • April 25: Celtic vs Falkirk, 5.30pm
  • April 26: Hibernian vs Hearts, 4.30pm
  • May 3: Hibernian vs Celtic, 12pm
  • May 4: Hearts vs Rangers, 5.30pm
  • May 9: Motherwell vs Hearts, 8pm
  • May 10: Celtic vs Rangers, 12pm
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