Raheem Sterling and Charlie Austin among most likely to move, according to study

Image: Charlie Austin is the most likely player to move in Europe, according to a study

QPR’s Charlie Austin is the most likely player in Europe to move clubs this summer, while Raheem Sterling is third in a list published by the Football Observatory.

The team of statisticians are from a research group in the International Centre for Sports Studies which was founded in 1995 as a joint-venture between FIFA and the University of Neuchâtel in Switzerland. The Football Observatory was established in 2005 and has carried out studies for both FIFA and UEFA.

Their most recent report looks at players from the top five leagues in Europe that could be set for the exit door.

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Find out who Sky Bet expect to move this summer in their Transfer Specials here.

It also predicts the fee clubs can expect to receive, and they have an 80% success rate according to the data compiled by the statisticians over the last two transfer windows. The most valuable player in the list this time round is Sterling who is priced up at an eye-watering £60m.

Raheem Sterling and Nathaniel Clyne have both been linked with summer moves
Image: Raheem Sterling and Nathaniel Clyne have both been linked with summer moves

Lyon’s Alexandre Lacazette could very well be moving in to Liverpool this summer. It would be viewed as a marquee signing and a £28.6m fee is attached.

Nathaniel Clyne is another player that could be heading to Anfield but Liverpool would have to considerably increase their £10m offer to at least £15.2m to get their man.

Alexis Sanchez is valued at a healthy £55m and despite just finishing his first season with Arsenal he is ranked a surprisingly high 41 in the list.

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Monaco midfielder Yannick Ferreira Carrasco celebrates scoring his team's third goal during the UEFA Champions League match between Arsenal and Monaco
Image: Yannick Ferreira Carrasco caused Arsenal plenty of problems in the Champions League

Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, someone Sanchez will be familiar with after he helped Monaco dump Arsenal out of the Champions League, is 47th and could move for £16m.

Antoine Griezmann and Miralem Pjanic both feature outside the top 70, but their parent clubs could very well command £47m for the former and £25.4m for the latter if they do move on.

Image: Antoine Griezmann could link up with Jose Mourinho at Chelsea

Griezmann has been linked with a move to Chelsea and Pjanic has attracted admiring glances from a number of Premier League suitors.

Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester United have all been allied with an interest in Ilkay Gundogan and he could be set to move from Borussia Dortmund, according to this study and his ranking of eighth.

United have also been linked with a player closer to home in Harry Kane and he sits in 47th position with a predicted transfer fee of £42.9m.

Gundogan joined Borussia Dortmund from FC Nurnberg in 2011
Image: Ilkay Gundogan has attracted the interest of a host of top clubs in Europe

Philippe Coutinho, Saido Berahino and Europa League sensation Carlos Bacca all take their respective positions in the top 100, albeit outside the top 30.

Players with one remaining year on their contracts are heavily represented as teams look to receive a fee to avoid the situation of a Bosman ruling transfer.

Philippe Coutinho
Image: Philippe Coutinho impressed for Liverpool last term

The study shows the greatest transfer probability is often for players from recently relegated clubs but this does not mean high profile players will be exempt from big money moves.

The Football Observatory’s top 50 players most likely to move:

1. Charlie Austin (QPR) £8.1m

2. Albin Ekdal (Cagliari) £2.7m

3. Raheem Sterling (Liverpool) £60m

4. Jose Mauri (Parma) £2.8m

5. Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon) £28.6m

Lyon's French forward Alexandre Lacazette gestures before the French L1 football match between Lyon and
Image: Alexandre Lacazette could leave Lyon for the Premier League

6. Raphael Guerreiro (Lorient) £6.4m

7. Alberto Paloschi (Chievo) £3.7m

8. Ilkay Gundogan (Dortmund) £13.5m

9. Daniel Wass (Evian TG) £1.6m

10. Elias Kachunga (Paderborn) £1.5m

11. Tomer Hemed (Almería) £1m

12. Fabián Orellana (Celta Vigo) £3.8m

13. Romain Metanire (Metz) £0.8m

14. Bouna Sarr (Metz) £1.1m

Image: Nabil Fekir has a £20.8m price-tag on his head if clubs want to sign him

15. Nabil Fekir (Lyon) £20.8m

16. Jordan Ayew (Lorient) £10.5m

17. Gregoire Defrel (Cesena) £4.8m

18. Oliver Sorg (Freiburg) £1.6m

19. Shinji Okazaki (Mainz) £2.8m

20. Raul Bobadilla (Augsburg) £2.8m

21. Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim) £16m

22. Christian Gentner (Stuttgart) £1.5m

23. Adrien Thomasson (Evian TG) £1.1m

24. Wissam Ben Yedder (Toulouse) £6m

25. Pablo Chavarría (Lens) £0.7m

26. Gonzalo Higuain (Napoli) £27.4m

Napoli's Argentinian forward Gonzalo Higuain celebrates after scoring his team's opening goal during the UEFA Europa League first-leg quarter-final
Image: Gonzalo Higuain may leave Napoli in search of Champions League football

27. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Dortmund) £11.6m

28. Tom Huddlestone (Hull City) £3.7m

29. Franco Di Santo (Werder Bremen) £5.7m

30. Jonathan Schmid (Freiburg) £2.8m

31. Kevin Mirallas (Everton) £5.3m

32. Branimir Hrgota (M’gladbach) £3.1m

33. Pablo Sarabia (Getafe) £3m

34. Vladimír Darida (Freiburg) £4.4m

35. Stefano Okaka (Sampdoria) £4.6m

36. Saido Berahino (WBA) £16.6m

37. Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal) £55m

HULL, ENGLAND - MAY 04:  Alexis Sanchez of Arsenal celebrates as he scores their first goal during the Barclays Premier League match between Hull City and
Image: Alexis Sanchez is valued at £55m in the Football Observatory list

38. Elseid Hysaj (Empoli) £4.1m

39. Mauro Icardi (Inter Milan) £20.9m

40. Johannes Geis (Mainz) £5.4m

41. Martín Caceres (Juventus) £1.7m

42. Wylan Cyprien (Lens) £1.7m

43. Uwe Hünemeier (Paderborn) £0.7m

44. Ahmed Elmohamady (Hull City) £2.3m

45. Yannick Ferreira Carrasco (Monaco) £16m

46. Roman Neustadter (Schalke) £3.3m

47. Harry Kane (Tottenham) £42.9m

Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur runs during the pre-season friendly match between Malaysia XI
Image: Harry Kane was in magnificent form for Tottenham last season

48. Ryad Boudebouz (Bastia) £2.1m

49. Graziano Pelle (Southampton) £11.6m

50. Andreas Weimann (Aston Villa) £2.9m

Notable other players in the top 100 players most likely to move this summer:

51. Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool) £40.6m

69. Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton) £15.2m

Monaco midfielder Joao Moutinho celebrates
Image: Joao Moutinho has been close to moving to Tottenham in the past

74. Joao Moutinho (Monaco) £7.9m

80. Miralem Pjanic (Roma) £25.4m

88. Carlos Bacca (Sevilla) £16.5m

91. Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) £47.5m

Carlos Bacca celebrates Sevilla's winner
Image: Carlos Bacca scored twice for Sevilla in the Europa League final

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