The state of play

Chris Collinson take a statistical look at how PL clubs are performing compared to last term.

Managers and pundits alike say that the time to start judging a club's performance is after their first 10 games of the season, with many saying that they don't even look at the table until then. But just looking at the table doesn't give a clear indication of how a club is performing. All the clubs have different ambitions - from winning the title to just surviving - and, more importantly, have had starts which vary widely in terms of difficulty. For example, Southampton have faced seven of last season's top 10 teams so far while Swansea have faced only three, so to compare them just by looking at the table is unfair. Even comparing a team's start to their own last season is misleading for the same reason. A fairer way of assessing how clubs are performing this season is to compare their current points totals with how many points they took from those same fixtures last season, which takes into account both the different quality of teams and the varying difficulties of their starts. For the promoted clubs, we can compare their results against those of the equivalent relegated club: champions Reading with Bolton, Southampton with Blackburn and play-off winners West Ham with bottom side Wolves. However, the three promoted clubs are aiming to survive, not equal points tallies that led to relegation. In the last 10 Premier League seasons an average of 37 points has been needed to survive, so to see whether the promoted clubs are on course to achieve that, a handicap is added to each club to signify the additional points needed over the course of the season (West Ham need 12 more points than Wolves' 25 last season, for example).