Watch West Ham vs Wolves and the Carabao Cup final between Chelsea vs Liverpool live on Sky Sports
Sunday 27 February 2022 16:25, UK
Fresh from tipping an array of winners on Saturday, Jones Knows is back with more insight, predictions and best bets across Sunday.
My view that West Ham are a team to oppose in the coming weeks was only strengthened by their lacklustre attacking showing in the 1-1 draw with Newcastle.
Yet again, I thought the Hammers lacked imagination and were second best for large periods in that draw. A similar story could be said in their previous four fixtures against Watford, Leicester, Kidderminster and Manchester United. In the last five games, the Hammers have scored seven goals but their attacking process is on the wane, registering just a total of 13 shots on target. That's an average of just 2.6 per 90 minutes. Just for context, Liverpool had 15 shots on target against Leeds on Wednesday.
The last team West Ham need right now is Wolves, who have conceded just 20 goals in 25 Premier League games this season - only Chelsea (18) and Man City (17) have shipped fewer. Bruno Lage's team were also comfortable 1-0 winners when the teams met in the corresponding fixture earlier this season. Despite all this, West Ham are favourites. That makes little sense to me and Wolves should be backed with confidence with the 5/1 on them to win to nil with Sky Bet standing out.
I told myself that going cold turkey on backing corner markets was the best step for me. But I've been drawn back here by Liverpool's price to win more corners than Chelsea at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
Since Chelsea have had to change playing without the natural width of their wing-backs, their average corner count has dropped from 6.8 per 90 minutes with Reece James to 5.4 without him. That may not sound an alarming drop but Chelsea are a much narrower team in this back-four system that doesn't use their full-backs as attacking weapons. And with Hakim Ziyech liking to cut in from the right, the chances of Chelsea winning corners down the channels have dried up.
They lost the corner count 6-4 at home to Lille and drew it 4-4 vs Crystal Palace. Now they face a genuine world-class team that just might run amok down the channels.
Liverpool have won the corner race in 29 of their 33 games across the Premier League and Champions League this season (87 per cent strike-rate), including in both fixtures against Chelsea. Imagine my surprise then when odds of 5/6 with Sky Bet popped up, implying that Liverpool stand a 54.55 per cent chance of winning the corner race. With the likely game-state of Chelsea happy to soak up pressure added to the corner data, I'd have that nearer 75 per cent. Take advantage of that edge in a game that looks hard to call in terms of the match result.
Five of the last 14 League Cup finals have gone to extra-time and this one may go that way too. Just back the corners.
