Premier League & FA Cup Predictions, odds and best bets: Liverpool's title party to be a goals-fest as Jones Knows tips up 6/1 treble
Watch Bournemouth vs Manchester United & Liverpool vs Tottenham live on Sky Sports | Play Super 6 to win £250,000 - deadline at 3pm on Saturday
Sunday 27 April 2025 14:34, UK
After landing his best bet treble at 14/1 last weekend, our betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his insight and angles across the Premier League and FA Cup.
Bournemouth vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There is a lazy narrative about Bournemouth being a free-scoring, goal-heavy team. They are anything but - especially at home.
Their 16 matches at the Vitality Stadium this season are averaging just 2.1 goals per 90 - the lowest of any team in the Premier League.
On nine of those occasions both teams to score 'no' has also landed - a healthy 56 per cent strike rate. It's a bet that's landed in 54 per cent of all Manchester United's games in the Premier League under Ruben Amorim, too.
The odds of 6/5 with Sky Bet on it happening again suggest a 45 per cent chance in terms of implied probability so we've got a nice edge there based on the raw numbers in what should be a low-scoring affair.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Liverpool vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Arne Slot has Liverpool on the brink of greatness - what a job he has done.
He's resisted trying to reinvent the wheel but has just tweaked key components here and there - all that was great about Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp still remains, but they are a more sensible football team now. Liverpool have also suffered just 37 injuries this season which is in stark contrast to rivals Arsenal, who have had almost double that. That is also a credit to the manager, who has managed his squad meticulously through the choppy waters of a Premier League season.
I think that might be the biggest difference between Arsenal and Liverpool this season. The injury toll may have even been the decisive factor. But that takes nothing away from what Liverpool have done - I think it's fine to say they've been deserving champions and also that Arsenal are probably the better side when everyone is fit. Both statements can be true.
For this one, it's going to be party time and Slot may go all irresponsible, tie a tie around his head, do a couple of shots and unleash a bit of Klopp-ball on Tottenham, who aren't exactly going to sit in a low block. Both teams to score and over 4.5 goals in the match is a runner at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-2
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, FA Cup semi-final, Sunday 4.30pm
Pep Guardiola has decided that playing pragmatically has been the only way Manchester City are going to save their season.
It's dull... but it's working.
Since they've switched back to the old guard in the win over Bournemouth, they've won five of their six games. It's far from vintage City but it's carrying them over the line.
When you throw this current style into the Wembley, high-stakes scenario against a notoriously defensive opposition like Forest then you simply have to be backing the under goal-line.
The last 43 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.97 goals in normal time - and if you backed the under 3.5 line in those 43 games, you'd have won 39 times. That's a 91 per cent strike rate. It's a sustainable long-term betting strategy to always back against goals at Wembley.
Under 2.5 goals is 10/11 with Sky Bet and is dripping with potential in a game that may just go all the way.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Nottingham Forest to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bets...
- 1pt treble on: Pedro Neto +1 shot on target, both teams to score in Wolves vs Leicester & under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs Man City (6/1 with Sky Bet) ❌
- 1pt on West Ham to beat Brighton (4/1 with Sky Bet) ❌
P+L = +9.97
