Premier League predictions and best bets: Newcastle to push Ange Postecoglou to the exit door?
Watch Aston Villa vs Burnley, Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, Wolves vs Brighton & Brentford vs Manchester City live on Sky Sports; Play Super 6 to win £1m!
Sunday 5 October 2025 16:22, UK
Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and tips more misery for Ange Postecoglou.
Aston Villa vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Burnley's new signing, Florentino, is shaping up as a fantastic bet in the fouls committed markets, which are often overlooked as a mainstream betting medium but are laced with value especially for new signings adapting to the Premier League's physical demands.
The Premier League is fast, physical and ruthless and Florentino's style screams dynamic enforcer on what we've seen from him in his two starts so far. He's a midfielder who plays with aggression and intensity, breaking up play and never shying away from a physical duel.
The former Benfica man committed 1.79 fouls per 90 last season, including making at least one foul in his last 19 starts. He's already made three in two starts for Burnley and such is Villa's foul-drawing strength in central areas, that kind of average is likely to be repeated at Villa Park. The Evens for two or more Florentino fouls looks a solid play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Crystal Palace have the team to do something really special this season in the Premier League.
But they won't.
As to remain consistent in the Premier League will be almost impossible for them to achieve due to their European commitments.
A first taste of European football in their modern era is something fans and Oliver Glasner will take very seriously. And rightly so. Selhurst Park under the lights for a knockout game will be mega. But as romantic as that sounds, it's also going to bring with it a Premier League hangover.
Clubs of Palace's stature and budget often struggle to handle the double life of domestic and European football. Clubs outside the big six who get Europe have an average drop of 6.3 league positions the following season since 2015. We've seen it with Brighton, West Ham and Leicester over the years. It's going to happen to Palace, so the home win at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks a wise investment on Everton following Palace's midweek trip to Poland.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
In a Newcastle midfield built to fight, Sandro Tonali glides and creates the magic. While Bruno Guimaraes orchestrates and Joelinton bullies, Tonali is the biggest goal threat. Everything he does is filled with intent. He doesn't just want to circulate possession. He wants to influence.
When Newcastle play at home, Eddie Howe unleashes a more expansive, front-foot midfield. Tonali becomes the spare man in transitions, the third runner in attacks and has become a goal threat. He's scored five times in his last 17 starts at St James' Park and has averaged a healthy 1.62 shots per 90 with hitting two or more shots in seven of his last 11 home starts.
He's not being priced like a consistent goalscoring threat yet. And that's where the edge is at 11/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Wolves vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Brighton at odds-on to beat Wolves? It just doesn't sit right. The price doesn't match the flakiness and inconsistencies involved with Fabian Hurzeler's team.
Yes, Brighton are still getting results. But scratch beneath the surface with both the eye test and the underlying metrics and this is a team that isn't functioning anywhere near the levels the market seems to think they are.
Brighton's defensive numbers are the biggest worry. They've conceded an average of 1.6 expected goals per game over the last 13 Premier League - that's the worst per 90 figure of any ever-present team during that period.
Their pressing structure, once so cohesive and suffocating, is now easier to play through - and their high-risk, high-reward build-up play is not seeing the returns it once did. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League games, too.
Wolves are of course no juggernaut, but they're tactically disciplined, aggressive in duels and more than capable of spoiling Brighton's rhythm in midfield.
The market is pricing up Brighton on vibes rather than reality. Back Wolves on the draw no bet at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Wolves draw no bet (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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There are few greater joys in the betting game than sniffing out value in the foul markets. It's the new frontier. Goalscorer markets are overcooked. Booking points can be a lottery. Outright markets can be settled on fine margins. But fouls? That's where the true edge lives.
The standout match-up for fouls this weekend is Michael Kayode vs Jeremy Doku. Such is Doku's form right now, all I can say to Kayode is: good luck, son.
Kayode is as raw as they come but very aggressive with his defending, meaning he's foul-prone when isolated.
Douk doesn't just beat defenders, he destroys them. He's drawn 13 fouls in his last five starts and is completing nearly five dribbles completed per game. Kayode is 6/4 to make two or more fouls with Sky Bet. That's a lovely angle to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Jones Knows' best bet:
- 1pt on Wolves draw no bet vs Brighton (7/4 with Sky Bet)
