Arsenal vs Sheffield United and West Ham vs Everton longshots? Jones Knows betting column
"A player that has recorded three shots and had 12 touches in the opposition box in their last five games should be much shorter than 80/1 to score first"
Last Updated: 18/01/20 8:05am
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Six inches. Here we have a measurement that has always held me back.
And now it seems to be costing me winning bets, too.
Last week's headline tip in Crystal Palace vs Arsenal of David Luiz having an effort on target and most goals coming in the second half at 6/1 was that aforementioned measurement away from landing.
Watching from the Selhurst Park press box with the game at 1-1 with one more second-half goal needed and Luiz to hit the target, my eyes were transfixed on the Brazilian from every set piece. And when he connected with a flicked near-post header my body prepped to greet the ball nestling in the back of net in typical Jones Knows style with a mighty roar and fist pump.
Palace goalkeeper Vicente Guaita could only watch as the ball looped towards the unguarded far side of his net. Gamble landed, surely.
Luiz had put six inches too much on his skilful header. I gasped. And instantly blamed his barber.
Fella, if you're out there, I hope you know that leaving that extra bit of bush on Luiz's fro - which to my calculations would have taken six inches of force off his heading power - cost me a winner to savour.
Don't worry, I'm on the canvas and hunting for value again.
I've got three selections to attack this weekend - two of them at monster prices. Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +13.
It's time to see if Jones Knows...
West Ham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm: 2pts on Tom Davies to make four or more tackles (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Being ahead of the game in terms of players taking up new roles for a new manager is an angle I'm looking to exploit more in 2020. Much like last weekend's tackling tip James Ward-Prowse, it seems as though Tom Davies is being moulded into the destroyer role in the Everton engine room.
More known for his energy and ball playing further up the field, it seems Carlo Ancelotti is looking to utilise Davies' bite where breaking up play is high on the manager's priorities. Following his tenacious performance against Brighton, where he won four tackles and was a constant nuisance for the Brighton midfield, Davies said: "My role is about setting up how to play and what positions to be in so I can offer for the ball."
With Fabian Delph quickly falling out of favour with the fans, Davies should get a decent run in the side in this role where recovering the ball is his main job.
There should be plenty of action in central areas in this fixture with West Ham switching their style under David Moyes. Felipe Anderson is operating more centrally in a system that is built around getting more bodies in and around Sebastian Haller.
That axis will keep Davies busy along with dealing with Declan Rice and Mark Noble breaking from deeper positions. In what is likely to be a well contested and even clash, I'm expecting the tackle count to edge towards the higher average as these two teams are ranked third and fourth for tackles made in the Premier League this season. If that's the case, then Davies rates far more likely to cover four tackles than the 11/4 on offer.
What does Opta define as a tackle?
A tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in a ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the player in possession.
The tackled player must clearly be in possession of the ball before the tackle is made.
A tackle won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”.
A tackle lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player.
The fixture at the London Stadium unearthed quite a few angles I was looking to exploit, so Sky Bet have kindly boosted the price on this bet which makes me comfortable recommending it on value grounds despite it having three results to go our way.
As mentioned, Anderson is undertaking a more advanced central role under Moyes, much in the same way he moved Marko Arnautovic further forward during his first spell which worked tremendously. Anderson isn't quite as ruthless in front of goal as the Austrian but should continue to get into goalscoring areas, like he did in the 4-0 win over Bournemouth and last Friday against Sheffield United, where he pulled a glorious one-on-one chance wide of the post.
He's overpriced to score anytime at 7/2 but I'm going to combine him with Davies to get booked for reasons explained above and the fact he's been carded in five of his last nine appearances for Everton. Also, Pablo Zabaleta has been cautioned in two of his last three. With Anderson playing inside, the veteran is likely to get exposed one-on-one by Lucas Digne. At 66/1, I'm more than happy to invest.
Jones Knows: Back 66/1 shot here!
Felipe Anderson to score, Tom Davies and Pablo Zabaleta to be booked
The case for this long-shot is a simple one. A player that has recorded three shots and had 12 touches in the opposition box in their last five games should be much shorter than 80/1 to score first.
This gigantic price is based around the fact that Egan hasn't scored for the Blades for over two years, yet, regular watches of the impressive centre-half know of his big threat from set-pieces. This bet could and probably should've landed in two of Sheffield United's last five fixtures.
Egan had an opening goal disallowed by VAR for handball at Brighton and he missed what Opta defined as a 'big chance' when blazing over from close range against West Ham last Friday in the first half. If either of those efforts had found the net, his price would be nearer 25/1 for this clash.
And when you factor in that Arsenal have conceded nine goals from set pieces this season, the savvy Chris Wilder will be targeting that weakness by allowing Egan to venture forward at every opportunity. Taking the 80/1 is advised over the 33/1 anytime scorer price as the Blades are notoriously low scoring on the road, so it's worth chancing the much bigger price in a game that won't produce many chances.
Super 6 fixtures: Arsenal vs Sheffield United, Brighton vs Aston Villa, Southampton vs Wolves, Manchester City vs Crystal Palace, Norwich vs Bournemouth and West Ham vs Everton.