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Tuesday 13 February 2024 11:08, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis ahead of the Monday Night Football clash between Crystal Palace and Chelsea...
Trying to win football matches is hard enough when Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are unavailable but when you throw Marc Guehi into the injury mix too, Palace are a seriously weakened outfit.
Breaking up the Guehi-Joachim Anderson partnership at the back is likely to make the whole Hodgson masterplan of containment crumble to bits. In 83 Premier League matches with Guehi and Anderson starting, Palace have a very healthy 31.3 per cent win rate. Take one of them out and that win rate drops to 12.5 per cent.
In those 16 games, Palace concede an average of 1.8 goals per 90 and have lost 10 of those fixtures.
Chelsea aren't exactly reliable but with confidence and spirit soaring after their impressive midweek 3-1 win at Villa, they can make it 12 Premier League wins in a row over Crystal Palace - that would equal the record for successive wins for one team against another in Premier League history.
Rather than back Chelsea at precarious prices though, I'd rather invest in some Enzo Fernandez angles on what should be an evening of Chelsea racking up the shots count trying to pick their way through the Hodgson block. The Argentine should be full of himself, in a good way, following his sumptuous goal at Villa Park.
His raw average of 1.99 shots per 90 in the Premier League is enough on its own to make the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him having two or more shots an appealing wager but when you throw in the likely one-sided game-state along with his increased confidence levels you've got yourself a blinding spot of value to attack.
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