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Analysis

Scottish Premiership title race: Celtic or Rangers in the driving seat?

A look at the battle for Scotland's top spot including who is favourite, where the title could be won or lost, how January transfer plans could impact this season, why it is not just a trophy up for grabs and more

Celtic and Rangers go head-to-head on December 30 at Parkhead

What is the state of play?

It has been a rollercoaster of a season so far and it is Celtic who remain in top spot following their Old Firm win at the end of 2023.

On October 15 Philippe Clement inherited a squad at Ibrox that were bereft of confidence, struggling in Europe and in some people's minds out of the title race.

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Highlights from December's Scottish Premiership match between Celtic and Rangers

Celtic had stretched the gap between the sides to 10 points earlier in the season but a 16-game unbeaten run under the Belgian saw Rangers cut that deficit to just five with games in hand.

Some thought the momentum was with the Ibrox side but a 2-1 win for Brendan Rodgers' team at Celtic Park over their rivals saw the Hoops banish any memories of their back-to-back league losses in December as the champions moved eight points clear at the summit.

Rangers do have two games in hand, the first of which is against Hibernian on January 24, then Ross County at Ibrox later in the campaign.

However, even with wins in those, Celtic would still lead the way by two points - provided the teams match results on other matchdays.

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Who is favourite for the title?

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Rangers last won the league title in 2021 - ending a long 10 year wait

If only football was that simple! A few months ago, the answer was Celtic but is it that straightforward now?

The Hoops are still in the driving seat and have points on the board which their rivals need to earn, while navigating their Europa League knockout games.

However, Rangers have shown they can put a strong run of results together under Clement while Rodgers has shown he can do the same and navigate choppy waters to steer Celtic back on course - it really is too close to call.

As well as form, other factors come into the equation. The mentality to get over the line in a title race, playing in Glasgow's goldfish bowl, potential January transfers and even injuries - a lot can change.

Over the last 12 seasons, Celtic have won the league 11 times with Rangers claiming just one in 2020/21 as they stopped their rivals clinching a 10th consecutive title.

Several members of Rodgers' squad know what it takes to get over the line, as does the manager himself who won back-to-back league titles during his first spell in Glasgow, including an invincible treble.

Brendan Rodgers won two league titles during his first spell as Celtic manager
Image: Brendan Rodgers won two league titles during his first spell as Celtic manager

On first glance, league tables in recent years, such as 2022, may suggest there have been some close battles for Scotland's top spot. However, in reality, that title was sewn up comfortably and you need to go back to 2010/11 for the last genuine title race as Rangers were crowned champions on the last day of the season.

It takes a certain mentality to win the league.

Rangers' form has got them back into the race but you can't underplay the experience Rodgers and his squad have. It really is too close to call.

Will either club strengthen in January?

ROME, ITALY - NOVEMBER 28: Celtic Manager Brendan Rodgers looks dejected at full time during a UEFA Champions League group stage match between S.S. Lazio and Celtic at Stadio Olimpico, on November 28, 2023, in Rome, Italy.  (Photo by Craig Foy / SNS Group)
Image: Could Rodgers add to his squad in January?

Rodgers has made no secret of his desire to add "quality" to his squad. The Hoops have a large cash reserve and could strengthen in January.

With five players called up to the Asian Cup and the manager seemingly wanting better options to help the club compete on all fronts - it could be a busy transfer window.

Defensive reinforcements top some Celtic fans' wish lists - and Rodgers could look to offload some of his fringe options too as he aims to mould a squad that can help take the club to the next level.

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - JANUARY 02: Rangers' Fabio Silva during a cinch Premiership match between Rangers and Kilmarnock at Ibrox Stadium, on  January 02, 2024, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Rob Casey / SNS Group)
Image: Fabio Silva has joined Rangers on loan from Wolves

Clement meanwhile has added one player, Fabio Silva on loan from Wolves, and says he has been speaking with the club's board about their plans this month.

A new director of football recruitment has arrived and with a lengthy injury list - something Clement described as his "biggest puzzle" - Rangers too could be forced to spend in the winter window.

Another striker, central midfielder and left-back could be on the shopping list due to those injuries and Abdallah Sima's AFCON call-up - but whoever does arrive will have to hit the ground running, with question marks still surrounding some of those nine new faces who joined in the summer.

Why there's more than just a trophy at stake

Luis Palma fired Celtic in front from the penalty spot
Image: Celtic were in the Champions League group stages this season after winning the title

You might think I mean pride here - and yes there is that. However, Champions League football is also up for grabs with this season's league winners guaranteed a group-stage spot and big prize money: at least £35m.

However, due to the UEFA coefficient rankings, it could be the last season an automatic spot is up for grabs for Scottish clubs for some time.

Rangers' Cyriel Dessers celebrates with Abdallah Sima as he scores to make it 2-1 vs Real Betis
Image: Rangers beat Real Betis away to win their Europa League group

That's because Scotland are in a battle to finish 10th in UEFA's rankings this season - which impacts clubs in the 2025/26 campaign. Then from 2026/27 there could be no automatic places, plenty of tricky qualifiers and a huge dent in cash available for clubs to strengthen and compete in Europe.

When is the next Old Firm?

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Kyogo has scored the winner in both meetings this season, with the first at Ibrox as Celtic won 1-0 in September

Celtic have won both derby clashes this season, a run Rangers must end if they're to have any chance of winning the title.

An injury-hit side were victorious against Michael Beale's Rangers at Ibrox in September before Kyogo was the difference-maker again, helping claim a 2-1 win on December 30 in Glasgow's East End.

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - DECEMBER 30: Celtic Manager Brendan Rodgers and Rangers Manager Philippe Clement  during a cinch Premiership match between Celtic and Rangers at Celtic Park, on December 30, 2023, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Craig Foy / SNS Group)
Image: Rodgers (right) and Clement will face each other in the Scottish Premiership again in April

Both clubs will need to ensure they continue picking up points elsewhere - knowing teams across the league have plenty to play for and nothing is guaranteed.

There could be as little as two points difference the next time Celtic and Rangers meet, with Ibrox the venue on April 6 before one more league meeting set to follow after the split.

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