Predictions and insight ahead of the latest round of Premier League games; watch West Brom vs Everton and Liverpool vs Chelsea live on Sky Sports
Friday 5 March 2021 00:22, UK
Having tipped Gareth Bale to score twice on Sunday at 14/1, Jones Knows is back in the prediction chair to provide some insights for the midweek action.
A charge up the Premier League table is forthcoming for Tottenham if they maintain their levels in attack that we witnessed on Sunday vs Burnley. Questions have been asked of Jose Mourinho ever since Gareth Bale returned to north London as the Spurs boss used him infrequently as he looked to regain his form, and more importantly his fitness.
But the Wales international looks to be regaining his form, his confidence and he looks the fittest he's done all season. With him on the left of Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son, Spurs have a genuine title-winning attack to go to war with. If Mourinho can work his magic with the defence, then Spurs might not be too far away next season. The 5/1 for a top-four finish this season seems achievable now.
Fulham remain very flaky, unable to consistently produce game-changing moments in their favour. I can't see them handling the Spurs attack.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Tottenham to score two or more goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Even if West Brom get relegated, it's going to be hard for struggling teams to resist Sam Allardyce. His reputation remains in tact.
His rescue act at West Brom has sparked too late for a successful survival bid but he's yet again shown he's an experienced fox at rebuilding a team. The win over Brighton had been coming. Can they back that up with another victory? Everton will need to match the Baggies for attitude and commitment, then they'll be hoping their superior class will takeover. This is a tight one to call and I'm on the fence.
I'd rather back the chances of Matheus Pereira hitting the target twice at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
Allardyce has found a clever position for the tricky attacker off the right, meaning he can cut onto his left foot at every opportunity. In the draw with Burnley, he had six shots on goal with three hitting the target. With Everton likely to drop deep and allow shots at goal (they rank seventh for most shots faced in the league), Pereira should get lots of chances to let rip plus he takes penalties and all attacking set pieces.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Matheus Pereira two or more shots on target (7/2 with Sky Bet)
For all the control and defensive solidity Chelsea have shown at the start of Thomas Tuchel's reign, they have rarely looked ready to cut loose and make their dominance count in matches. They've scored just 10 goals in his nine games. When Liverpool are at their best, they are the antithesis of what Tuchel is doing at Chelsea. It's all about direct, to the point football where chances are created and every bit of possession comes with a purpose. Of course, this isn't vintage Liverpool on show at the moment with too many of their players still finding their top form.
However, one player looks to be playing himself back into good nick and that's Trent Alexander-Arnold.
It was yet another encouraging display from him at Sheffield United. The rampaging Liverpool full-back averaged an assist every 0.4 games last season as he racked up 13 in total across the title-winning campaign, going off around 5/4 every week for an assist. His return has dropped sharply this season with just three assists grabbed at a rate of one every 0.1 matches.
However, there are signs of improvement in recent weeks as he's created 11 chances in his last five games for his teammates, producing an expected assist figure of 2.2 but an actual assist record of zero. With Chelsea still vulnerable defensively in behind either Ben Chilwell or Marcus Alonso, the 3/1 with Sky Bet on offer for Alexander-Arnold to register his fourth assist of the season should be snapped up.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Trent Alexander-Arnold to get an assist (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Michail Antonio's goal for West Ham at Manchester City on Saturday was the first goal the trio of Ederson, Ruben Dias and John Stones had conceded from open play this season - a run of 15 games. That is frankly ridiculous.
Dias did my campaign for him to be crowned player of the season no harm by grabbing the all-important opener and the man-of-the-match award. He just loves defending, although might not have to do much in this one as City go looking for 21 wins on the trot. That is frankly ridiculous.
Home win.
Meanwhile, I was left cursing how Wolves managed to escape not going in behind at the break at Newcastle. Having backed Steve Bruce's men to be ahead at half-time at 3/1, to see them waste chance after chance in the opening 45 minutes hurt. It only further intensified my theory that Wolves only come out to play after half-time or when falling behind.
All six of their last Premier League goals have come after the 45th minute when Pedro Neto and Adama Traore are given more licence. The 5/1 for them to be the last team to score here is interesting, although, breaking down the City wall probably will be a task too great. I'll have a small nibble.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to score the last goal (5/1 with Sky Bet)
Leicester are a massive lay here.
For those that like a short price, the 4/5 on Burnley double chance (Burnley to win or draw) should provide the backbone of all your midweek betting plans.
It's been a very bad week for Brendan Rodgers, defeat in the Europa League followed up by another home defeat but more worryingly, the injury situation is now getting out of hand. Harvey Barnes and Jonny Evans joined James Maddison, James Justin and Denis Praet in the treatment room and Jamie Vardy was nursing his groin for the majority of the Arsenal defeat. If you think Liverpool have had it bad injury-wise just look at Leicester.
Around the 25-game mark was when Leicester started to unravel last season, winning just three of their last 14 matches as they chucked away Champions League qualification. A 2-1 defeat to Burnley was one of those defeats and a depleted Leicester side will be in for a full-throttle encounter again as Sean Dyche's men need points to pull away from danger.
I'm still not quite able to trust Leicester in a game where they'll be allowed to have the ball and space in behind will be at a premium.
Since thrashing Manchester City 5-2, in games where they've had more possession than their opponents, they've taken just 13 points from a possible 36 available with an average expected goals figure of just 1.05 per fixture. That isn't anywhere near top-four standard and just might be the reason why the Foxes will fall short of consistently competing with the elite again this campaign.
Burnley, full of physicality and expertly organised, are set up perfectly to quell the Leicester threat. Rodgers' team conceded another goal from a set piece vs Arsenal - their eighth conceded from a cross this season - and Dyche's side will be targeting that area.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Burnley double chance (4/5 with Sky Bet)
In what is likely to be a bitty affair, set pieces may come to the fore. And only Leeds defend such situations worse than Sheffield United, highlighting an opportunity for the visiting Villa big men to get involved in front of goal.
That was the route that led to the only goal in the corresponding fixture where Tyrone Mings' flick on was headed home by Ezri Konsa for a 1-0 Villa win.
My eyes are drawn to the prices about Mings threatening Aaron Ramsdale's goal. The England international has fired 16 shots on goal this season with a total expected goals figure of 1.49, putting him just behind the likes of Harry Maguire and Lewis Dunk in the most dangerous centre-backs category. His chances of firing two shots on goal are far more likely than the 17/2 on offer with Sky Bet. In recent weeks, Maguire, Antony Rudiger, Ben Mee and Adam Webster have all managed to register two shots on goal in a game against Chris Wilder's leaky outfit.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
BETTING ANGLE: Tyrone Mings to have two or more shots (17/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United remain unbeaten with a club record 20 league away games since slipping to defeat to Chelsea over a year ago. Brighton, Burnley, Everton, Fulham, Newcastle, Sheffield United, Southampton and West Ham have been swatted aside by United this season on the road - and it's unlikely Palace will have the attacking bravery to give them too many problems. I'm happy to play the away win.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer must have tremendous faith in Mason Greenwood. Despite only scoring one Premier League goal in 1098 minutes of action this season, he was handed the opportunity to lead the line in an important match at Chelsea. That faith will surely be rewarded in the long-term, starting at Selhurst Park, where the youngster looks a fine bet to get on the scoresheet at 2/1 with Sky Bet if playing in the same central role as he did at Chelsea.
The 19-year-old remains a frightening talent, whose finishing ability mirrors that of former United favourite Robin Van Persie. There were positive signs at Stamford Bridge that a goal-glut might just be around the corner. Against that miserly defence, Greenwood flashed a terrific strike inches past the post in the second half after linking with Bruno Fernandes. You get the feeling Crystal Palace will be more accommodating to awarding the striker space to play in and the 2/1 for him to score looks overpriced to me as he bids to get back to a goal ratio that stood at 0.69 per game last season.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Mason Greenwood to score anytime (2/1 with Sky Bet)
