Back a final-day goal bonanza in the Premier League - Jones Knows

Betting insight for the latest round of midweek Premier League games; our tipster Jones Knows is all over an 11/4 shot with Sky Bet that revolves around goals in the dead rubbers

Jones Knows sees goals, goals, goals on the final day
Image: Jones Knows sees goals, goals, goals on the final day

Jones Knows ponders whether his wife might be trying to poison him in order for him to shut up about Ruben Dias and tips up goals, goals, goals on the final day.

How did we get on at the weekend?

At least this is the last weekend of finding value losers. Southampton/Southampton and Danny Ings to score at 11/2 was another fair bet that came home a loser as Ings was taken off with 30 minutes to go with Saints in control of the game.

This will be the last column of the season, although it was nearly the last one ever thanks to my wife.

No, she hasn't all of a sudden taken a fierce stance against my betting - she signed up to this life when saying "I do" - she just tried to poison me, that's all.

For my trip to cover Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, I quickly made myself a homemade coffee for the journey using water from the kettle. Off I went in the car to Selhurst.

However, my first sip of said coffee tasted like my mouth had been assaulted - it triggered me to spit the mouthful all over the dashboard but somehow I kept control of the car. Some of the liquid did slip down my throat though. Wow, just a bad cup of coffee, I thought.

But the plot thickened when speaking to Mrs Jones Knows on my way into the ground about the coffee incident. "You do know I was descaling the kettle this morning - the bottle says you probably won't die if you've only had a small amount," she observed without a tinge of empathy.

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I had 999 ready to dial from my press seat at Selhurst. But thankfully, I made it through the 90 minutes. These guts are made of steel.

Whether this was an intentional or accidental poisoning attempt is up for debate, but I have my suspicions. She's just probably fed up of me rambling on about Ruben Dias, who was on the cusp of landing us quite a big gamble if he won the PFA Player of the Year award.

"Dias has gone odds-on in the Player of the Year market" was met with a blank face as she was trying to settle our nine-month-year-old child whilst chanting "Ruben, Ruben, Ruben" to the tune of "Ruby, Ruby, Ruby" every time he makes a block in a Manchester City game is probably getting a little tiresome. According to Opta, he's made 22 this season - that's a lot of Kaiser Chiefs for anybody.

I do have two tips for the weekend, the first one can be found below. The second one is don't drink kettle descaler.

Good luck if following.

P+L for the season: -3

2pts on over 17.5 goals in Arsenal vs Brighton, Fulham vs Newcastle, Leeds vs West Brom, Sheffield United vs Burnley and Wolves vs Manchester United (11/4 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

You can always guarantee goals on the final day of a Premier League season. In the last 10 Premier League final days, the goal-per-game ratio has always sailed above the season average for goals per matchday on the final day. Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a no-pressure environment and with fans back in the stadium too, that only increases the possibility of attack-minded football.

So, how should we approach this potential goal-fest with our betting strategy?

Sky Bet have kindly priced up an 11/4 shot that revolves around five games where there is little or nothing to play for. Don't worry about the top four race, dead-rubbers will be where my eyes are at this weekend. To my eye, with the final day vibe set to be in full flow, this should really be an odds-on shot.

We're requiring these five games to produce an average of just over three goals per game but the final day always sees a game go into overdrive in terms of a scoreline. Remember Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth in 2019? Or Tottenham 5-4 Leicester in 2018? How about Hull City 1-7 Tottenham 2017? You get the gist.

There's a fantastic chance one of these four selected matches could produce seven or more goals - if that occurs, then this bet is almost certainly going to land.

Get on the 11/4 here.

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