Premier League predictions and best bets: David Moyes to save West Ham again, by relegating Spurs
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Thursday 21 May 2026 23:01, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of the final weekend of the Premier League season.
Brighton vs Manchester United, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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The final day of the Premier League season has a history of producing goals.
If you were backing the over 1.5 goals line in the last 110 final day games, you're working at an 86 per cent strike rate with the overall goals per-game average at 3.36.
Meanwhile, in five of those 11 campaigns, 36 goals or more were scored on this final day and that's relevant because Sky Bet do offer that as a market on their specials page. They are dangling 3/1 about the prospect which has a great balance of being a really fun bet to follow and being on the right side of the value fence.
This game should help that bet go close in what should be a goal heavy game where Brighton need to win and hope that Bournemouth lose to Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa lose at Man City and Liverpool beat Brentford to have a chance of qualifying in sixth for the Champions League.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Final day to have 36 or more goals scored (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Wolves, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
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This one probably won't be troubling the Super Sunday producers when plotting where the drama will be on Sunday but there is a niche group of people, including me, who are holding a Burnley to finish bottom ticket at 3/1 and will be following every moment of this one.
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Wolves have to win. Anything else and they're propping up the entire Premier League table come 6pm on Sunday.
For a player prop, the shots averages rise by about 2.1 per game on the final day based on 10 years of data and Yerson Mosquera has a very healthy shots output for a centre-back. He's hit the two or more line in two of his last three starts. It's 10/11 with Sky Bet to go in again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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There's real final-day exhibition match vibes here where everyone involved just wants to get through the afternoon with smiles intact and hamstrings preserved.
Palace are preparing for the biggest game in their history on Wednesday night with a first-ever European final looming.
The same can be said for Arsenal.
The title has already been secured. The champagne has been sprayed. And with a Champions League final just around the corner, Mikel Arteta's priority will simply be maintaining rhythm without inviting unnecessary risk.
That usually creates the perfect storm for a strangely passive football match.
Historically, the final day produces fewer cards than any other round of Premier League fixtures. Across recent seasons, the average total drops to just 2.8 cards per game - around 0.7 lower than the standard rate. And when you layer in these very specific circumstances, the case for a low-card affair becomes extremely strong.
Under 1.5 total match cards at Evens with Sky Bet sounds skinny on paper but context is king. This has all the makings of a referee's easiest afternoon of the season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Fulham vs Newcastle, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
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Backing Marco Silva's team at this stage of the season has become a dangerous game.
Fulham's April and May record under Silva raises some serious concerns. They've lost 13 of their last 23 Premier League matches played across those months, developing a frustrating habit of fading badly once the campaign drifts towards its conclusion. The draw at Wolves last weekend was a clear pointer of that.
There's more than a hint of "on the beach" syndrome about them.
Newcastle are the bet at 13/10 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Liverpool vs Brentford, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Liverpool's final day at Anfield has the potential to descend into one of those basketball-style shootouts where structure disappears after about 20 minutes and everyone just starts trading punches.
That suits Brentford perfectly.
The equation is simple for the Bees: win or the dream of sneaking into the top eight and grabbing a Conference League place is over.
Final days often produce inflated goal numbers and although Liverpool can be devastating going forward at Anfield there have been vulnerabilities defensively all season. They have conceded 55 goals in the league this season - their most in a 38-game Premier League campaign.
Dango Ouattara catches the eye in the goalscorer markets at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
He's quietly pieced together an excellent campaign with eight league goals and already has form against Liverpool having scored in the reverse fixture. His direct running from wide positions looks a particularly dangerous weapon against a Liverpool side that can leave space down the channels when games become open.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Manchester City vs Aston Villa, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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The Etihad is expected to be in full celebration mode as City potentially wave goodbye to two iconic figures of their modern era in Bernardo Silva and perhaps even Pep Guardiola. If this is Guardiola's farewell, emotion will dominate the narrative far more than tactical edge or intensity.
Villa also arrive in circumstances where competitive sharpness could easily be compromised. A historic Europa League success followed by open-top bus celebrations will be draining. It's notoriously difficult to reset.
So, this points towards a subdued game.
That's why the cards angle jumps off the page.
Final-day matches consistently produce lower card counts than the league average and this fixture ticks every box for a low-aggression game state. Under 1.5 cards should land at 9/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
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If results elsewhere fall into place, Bournemouth could complete one of the stories of the season by qualifying for the Champions League. I'm expecting them to fully embrace the occasion rather than freeze under it.
And when thinking about betting on Bournemouth, it's impossible not to focus on Junior Kroupi.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet to score anytime, the price looks generous considering the level he's operating at right now. His strike against Manchester City wasn't just another goal - it underlined what an extraordinary debut Premier League season he's producing. Thirteen league goals as a teenager is remarkable company to keep. In fact, only Lamine Yamal has scored more goals as a teenager across Europe's major leagues this season.
That tells you everything about the scale of Kroupi's emergence. He can score in an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Sunderland vs Chelsea, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
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Both teams still have European qualification dangling in front of them and, crucially, neither side can really afford to play cautiously. A draw could easily prove useless depending on results elsewhere, which should create the kind of stretched, transitional football that makes final Sundays so entertaining.
Sunderland deserve enormous credit for even being in this position. Their fearlessness at home has carried them through the season and the Stadium of Light should be absolutely bouncing for this one.
That's why the shots markets appeal.
Noah Sadiki stands out at 7/2 with Sky Bet to register two or more shots. The numbers support it. He's recorded at least one shot in each of his last five home appearances, producing seven attempts in total across that run. More importantly, his role naturally suits chaotic game states because he arrives late into attacking areas rather than operating as a fixed midfielder.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Tottenham vs Everton, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Tottenham are one point from safety. Avoid defeat and they survive. Lose and the door swings wide open for the biggest shock relegation in Premier League history depending on what happens at West Ham.
And standing in their way? David Moyes.
The irony is magnificent really. Moyes, the man who stabilised West Ham and dragged them away from relegation trouble more than once, now has the opportunity to save them all over again - this time by beating Tottenham with Everton and potentially sending Spurs down instead.
Moyes has built a career on thriving in emotionally charged matches where organisation and discipline matter more than flair. If Spurs become nervy, Everton are perfectly capable of turning this into a deeply uncomfortable afternoon through set-pieces, direct play and slowing the rhythm whenever possible. Spurs are just too short at odds-on. The play must be Everton to win at 29/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
West Ham vs Leeds, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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West Ham's survival hopes are slim on the final day but at 5/1 with Sky Bet the market might just be underestimating how realistic that scenario is.
The equation is straightforward enough. West Ham must beat Leeds and then hope Everton do them a favour against Tottenham.
This West Ham side are flawed but they are absolutely built to attack. That's where the quality lies. With Jarrod Bowen, Crysensio Summerville and Taty Castellanos leading the line.
Across their last 12 home games, West Ham have averaged 1.7 goals per game from a strong expected-goals process of 1.85 xG per 90. They create chances consistently at the London Stadium and against a Leeds side with nothing tangible left to play for, opportunities should arrive again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Jones Knows' best bet...
1pt on 36 or more total goals across the 10 Premier League games (3/1 with Sky Bet)
What's next?
Already thinking about the 2026/27 Premier League season?
There's a World Cup to fit in first - follow live blogs of every game on the Sky Sports App - but the key dates are locked in for next term, when Sky Sports will once again show at least 215 live Premier League games.
Here's your summer diary:
June 11: World Cup starts - day-by-day fixture list
June 14: Scotland's opener vs Haiti (2am)
June 15: Summer transfer window opens
June 17: England's opener vs Croatia (9pm)
June 19: Premier League fixtures released (10am)
July 19: World Cup final
August 22-23: Premier League opening weekend
August 27: Champions League league phase draw
August 31: Transfer Deadline Day
September 8-10: Champions League matchday 1
May 30, 2027: Premier League final day
