FA Cup quarter-final predictions: Manchester City to send Liverpool packing and turn up heat on Arne Slot

Eight teams battle it out to make the Wembley semi-finals. Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his betting insight across all four matches.

Manchester City vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm

Liverpool fans and the hierarchy need to see some big performances and results in the next week otherwise Arne Slot is going to face serious pressure. This is a big one for Liverpool but the market only rates them as a 3/1 chance with Sky Bet to win in 90 minutes. It's a fair assessment of their chances in a tie Manchester City should progress from.

A betting strategy I like to use after an international break is to back low-scoring first halves. It can be a graveyard for goals.

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The long-term data support a drop in first-half goal averages in games after the international break. Across the last 10 seasons in the Premier League it drops from 1.3 goals per first half across all games to around 1.1 per first half after an international break.

There is logic behind these numbers, too, which is important when assessing a pattern of data as players have been travelling around the world so could be a little fatigued in the first game back. Breaks also disrupt rhythm from a player and managerial tactical point of view.

For example, after the first international break in September, 25 of the last 50 Premier League games have been 0-0 at half-time. A huge strike rate.

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Slot's Liverpool away from home can be a very stale and safe team in first halves, too. Liverpool have scored just three first-half goals in their last 15 away days.

The way I'm going to play this low-scoring first-half angle is through the Bet Builder, and that's to combine under 0.5 Liverpool first half goals - so Liverpool not to score in first the half - with under 1.5 total first half goals. Which gets us to 10/11 with Sky Bet. A cracking bet.

And I'll also have to cover the 0-0 at half-time which is too big at 3/1.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Chelsea vs Port Vale, Saturday 5.30pm

Port Vale are 28/1 to win this match in 90 minutes. It would be one of the biggest upsets in FA Cup history if League One's bottom side could somehow dispatch Chelsea.

It's a terrible betting heat from an outright perspective but the cards market does appeal. Chelsea have a big discipline problem. Only Tottenham and Brighton have been shown more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (71) and no club have had more players sent off than the Blues (7). Such is the gigantic mismatch between the teams, Chelsea's card expectancy is low in this game, with 7/4 with Sky Bet on offer from them to pick up over 1.5 cards. It's rare we get to back Chelsea at these kinds of prices in this market.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

Southampton vs Arsenal, Saturday 8pm

Southampton could be sitting ducks to the Arsenal set-piece machine. They've hit some form in the Championship but their record defending set pieces is abysmal. Across the last 21 games, no team is conceding more shots per game from set pieces than Saints - a whopping 5.5. They also lead the charts for most goals conceded via this route with 11 goals shipped in those last 21 games.

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Cristhian Mosquera has started the last two FA Cup ties, and with a Champions League trip to Sporting to come in midweek, it's likely he'll get the nod again with Mikel Arteta freshening up his team. He had a shot in both those victories over Mansfield and Wigan. Such is the weakness of Saints on that side of the game, Mosquera is worth backing to have two or more shots at 2/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

West Ham vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm

There's a really interesting dynamic to this game, as a chance to make an FA Cup semi-final doesn't come around often for these clubs, but neither manager will be too disheartened if they get knocked out based on their situation in the Premier League.

I'm going to back West Ham here, though, on the draw no bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet as this Leeds team away from home aren't a team to trust. They've won just twice in 90 minutes in 18 away games this season - against Derby and Wolves - and were even knocked out by Sheffield Wednesday in the Carabao Cup on penalties. Daniel Farke's men are competitive in games and very well organised, but they just lack killer instinct and quality in the final third to open up a tight game.

And although West Ham remain in the bottom three, under Nuno Espirito Santo they have been operating as an upwardly mobile Premier League team for a few months now. They can book a spot at Wembley.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

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