Sky Bet's Kristian Walsh finds value for Saturday's night El Clasico clash at the Bernabeu.
Sky Bet's Kristian Walsh looks for value from the betting markets for Barcelona's trip to Bernabeu to face great rivals Real Madrid.
Punters rejoice! Barcelona, the best team in the world, can be backed at odds against. Even better, they are
15/8.
There just one catch: they have to beat Real Madrid at the Bernabeu at the time when Jose Mourinho's men look unbeatable.
After three consecutive La Liga titles, two Champions League wins and earning the moniker of the best team in a generation, Barcelona look fallible, vulnerable and beatable. AC Milan came close. Valencia and Athletic Bilbao shook them; Getafe finally felled them.
But it's still Barcelona. It's still the Barcelona who, either side of the surprise 1-0 loss to Getafe, registered six wins, conceding just twice and scoring 21. In fact, since that loss in Madrid, Guardiola's men have won three, keeping three clean sheets and notching 13 goals.
Long price
Sky Bet make the champions a
15/8 shot to make that four-in-a-row and 7/2 to do it without conceding - both prices, no doubt, the longest Barcelona have been in a La Liga match under Pep Guardiola. But a price too good to be true, surely?
Perhaps so. As good as Barcelona have been this season, they're not quite the Barcelona of last season; their away form has been patchy. They've failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their 11 away fixtures in all competitions and won just two games in six attempts in the league - it is a far cry from the 14 wins in 19 last season.
This is the time to oppose the Catalan giants. Real Madrid are
7/4 to beat Barcelona in the league for the first time since May 2008, and with a 100 per cent record at the Bernabeu this season. Mourinho's men have scored 28 goals in six games - a record that will worry Barcelona, particularly if they persist with three at the back.
Given Real Madrid and Barcelona have scored a combined 96 league goals between them already this season, 4/7 on both teams to score appears a marvellous price. Over 2.5 goals at 4/6 seems enticing too, but just two of the past six have met this requirement, with the two being Barcelona's 6-2 and 5-0 drubbings. This raises a question in itself: does Mourinho continue his high-intensity, powerful attacking style, or revert back to the tactics which saw his Inter Milan side eliminate Barcelona in the Champions League?
Close affair
A Real Madrid 1-0 is the
7/1 favourite amongst
Sky Bet, while a Barcelona reverse is 8/1 - a stance which shows traders believe it could be a cagey affair. For all the explosiveness of last season's Champions League tie, Messi's late brace changed the complexion of a tight tie; despite the goal glut in the recent two-legged Super Cup affair, it was a glorified friendly.
In the league, with Real Madrid having a three-point lead to protect with a game in hand, expect Mourinho to keep it tight and pressurise Barcelona. The best way to stop them is not to let them have the ball - easier said than done, of course. Given a draw still sees Real with a three point lead with an extra game to play, Real Madrid draw no bet 4/6 entices.
Similar to punters hardly believing their luck being able to back both Real Madrid and Barcelona odds-against, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi - both with 17 league goals this season - are both available at 4/1 first goalscorer and evens anytime; the enhanced price of 7/2 for both of them to score seems excellent value.
It's slightly further down the market that interests. Cesc Fabregas, with seven league goals this season, will essentially play up front and is available at
9/1 to break the deadlock, while Andres Iniesta, who returned from injury last weekend, is a standout 16/1. For Real, Di Maria may relish the space Dani Alves leaves as he forays forward; the Argentine is 8/1, while Higuain - the league's third top scorer with 12 goals - is 6/1.
The most interesting bet is that of a sending off. In 28 games, referee David Fernandez Borbalan averages 75 booking points. He has shown at least one red card in 13 of those matches - including three in the Super Cup second leg. The 11/10 on a red card and 11/8 on a second half sending off both entice, while 65 to 85 booking points is available at 16/5.
