Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich. German Bundesliga.
Signal Iduna Park.
Can Borussia Dortmund make home advantage count against Bayern Munich even without the Yellow Wall? That is the question ahead of Tuesday’s Klassiker and the stats suggest that Dortmund rely on their fans more than most...
Tuesday 26 May 2020 18:40, UK
When the Bundesliga made its return, only one of the nine home teams on the first weekend of action emerged with the three points.
It was no surprise that this team was Borussia Dortmund, 4-0 winners over rivals Schalke at an empty Westfalenstadion. But perhaps they should still be more worried than most.
Those opening results were an early indication of something that has long been suspected - home advantage is diminished if not neutralised when supporters are absent.
A study of almost 200 matches across Europe that had been played behind closed doors revealed that the chances of the home team winning dipped significantly.
The crowd is able to inspire or intimidate and, even in the era of VAR, there is the potential for minor decisions to be influenced and shape the flow of the game.
But why is this a particular problem for Dortmund?
Dortmund's average attendance exceeds 80,000 - making them the best-supported team in Europe - and those supporters are more vocal than most too.
So heightened are the senses that former Dortmund boss Jurgen Klopp once compared emerging from the tunnel to a packed Westfalenstadion like the feeling of being born.
"You look to your left and it seems like there are 150,000 people up on the terrace all going completely nuts," Klopp said of the ground's Sudtribune, also known as the Yellow Wall.
"If you are the enemy, it crushes you but if you have her at your back as a goalkeeper, it is a fantastic feeling," said former Dortmund goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller.
Asked before one game whether it was the manager or the players in the Dortmund team that most concerned him, ex-Bayern Munich captain Bastian Schweinsteiger made it clear.
"It's the Yellow Wall I'm afraid of," he replied.
Erling Haaland even got goosebumps when he first experienced the atmosphere.
Although Dortmund produced a confident performance to win away to Wolfsburg on Saturday, their reliance on their home form is there for all to see this season.
In fact, Dortmund boast the only unbeaten home record in the Bundesliga this season.
While that might not be so surprising given the talent within the team, what is telling is that they pick up an unusually high proportion of their points in front of their own fans.
Over the past six seasons, Dortmund have secured 229 points at home compared to 150 points away from home. In five of those six seasons, they have picked up a greater proportion of their points at home than the league average.
In short, home advantage matters more to Dortmund.
Just as pertinently given that they are in a race for the title, home advantage matters more to Dortmund than it does to Bayern Munich - the league leaders and champions in each of those previous five seasons as well as the two prior to that.
In the opening 26 games of this season, Bayern picked up 29 points at home and 29 points away. Over the course of the past six seasons, their spread of points has been much more balanced than Dortmund with 53 per cent coming at home compared to their 60 per cent.
In fact, Bayern have picked up a lower percentage of their points at home than the league average in every one of the past six Bundesliga seasons. That would suggest that the influence of the crowd is not so pivotal to Bayern's success on the pitch.
They have the biggest budget and, in terms of reputation at least, they have the best players. Remove the intangibles and they will be the team who emerges victorious.
The lingering question that remained this season prior to the lockdown was whether or not Bayern Munich could go to Borussia Dortmund and get a result in the frenzied cauldron that is the Westfalenstadion on the day of Der Klassiker. Could they cope with the Yellow Wall?
If they could not, Bayern's four-point advantage at the top of the Bundesliga would fall to just one and the momentum would be with Dortmund for the run-in.
Now they must pull off the feat without their fans there to support them.
Dortmund did just that in the derby. They celebrated the win by wandering over towards that vast stand behind the goal, rejoicing with the absent supporters on the Yellow Wall.
It was a spontaneous decision, according to Dortmund player Julian Brandt, and an indication that their presence was still felt, but he did acknowledge that it was "completely different" without the supporters there cheering them on.
Dortmund will need to ensure their home form remains the same if they are to topple Bayern.
Follow live coverage of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich on skysports.com and the Sky Sports app on Tuesday; Kick-off at 5.30pm
"Borussia Dortmund, with a 2-0 victory over Wolfsburg, looked pretty good. I didn't think Wolfsburg gave them too many problems, but the same could be said about Frankfurt, who scored twice in quick succession to make it 3-2 against Bayern. Dortmund have started with 4-0 and 2-0 wins, while Bayern hit Frankfurt for five, so there is a not a lot between them.
"The away teams are coping much better in this scenario than the home teams - we saw that at the weekend. Bayer Leverkusen won at Borussia Monchengladbach, Dortmund won at Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen registered a shock victory at Freiburg, Leipzig won at Mainz and Augsburg thumped Schalke on their home turf. It does not enhance the home side at all without the fans and so that could be an advantage for Bayern - there will not be 80,000 packed inside the Signal Iduna Park.
"It is either going to finish 3-3 or the odd goal will make the difference. Bayern will extend the lead to seven points with what I am predicting. It will be a great game to watch and there are some real players to watch. If Dortmund did turn them over, you could see how, with the quality of players they have. Raphael Guerreiro, Erling Haaland and Julian Brandt have all been great. Even Jadon Sancho could make his first start since the break.
"But I will side with Bayern. There is more pressure on Dortmund to win here. Even if they do, they go a point behind. I think both teams have real quality right across the park, but the experienced quality lies with Bayern and I think that may make the difference."
