Jones Knows betting column: Back Middlesbrough and Wolves in 11/4 double
Jones Knows explains how Pascal Cygan helped him to success this week
Last Updated: 24/08/19 7:39am
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Stay cool under pressure. Wise words.
It's been a week where the aforementioned advice has been nagging at me like a naggy thing in my punting travails.
Firstly, if only one of the Brighton attackers had managed to 'stay cool' in front of goal from one of their 12 shots inside the box against West Ham, I would have been penning this column bulging with bravado. Instead, our 7/2 double on Leeds to win and Brighton to score over 1.5 goals went astray. Of course, I could mention VAR's call to disallow Leandro Trossard's opening goal. But looking at my notes I make for this column, I wrote: 'don't mention VAR, don't mention VAR, don't mention VAR'.
I won't mention VAR. See, I didn't mention VAR.
More luck this week was found in a French casino, though, as we hunted profit on a golf break.
Two casinos in two weeks doesn't read well for those already worried about my life choices after my Barcelona casino experience last week but I was forced kicking and screaming into this one, I swear. For once, we came out with our wallets bulging.
I've still never met a professional long-term winner who specialises in casino games, yet I may have stumbled on a guaranteed system to make you beat the house. It worked a charm for us. Listen up, go grab a pen and paper, this may change your life.
Our tactic of celebrating wins exclaiming the name of admired French footballers and lamenting our losing hands/spins by shouting out rubbish French footballers was a tactic that I'm certain led to our success.
Thankfully, there was more shouts of "Youri Djorkaeff" and "Bixente Lizarazu" rather than "Jean-Alain Boumsong" and "Pascal Cygan".
So, whatever country you find yourself in, adopt the same strategy.
If you hear a cry of "Carlton Palmer" this weekend at the blackjack table after a losing hand, you'll not only understand completely but be in the presence of a very shrewd cookie.
The French locals loved our strategy, too. One fellow punter uttered the words "espece d'idiot" in our direction on a few occasions. My French isn't great but I'm pretty sure that meant they enjoyed our British wit and undeniable great banter.
After last week's close call with the double, I'm following the same betting strategy. Let's hope I'm screaming "Peter Shilton" come the end of the weekend.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We are in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: -8 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows....
2pts on Middlesbrough to beat Millwall (Saturday, 3pm) & Wolves to beat Burnley (Sunday, 4.30pm): 11/4 double
We might be only nine per cent of the way through the season but this is the start of a period where punters can evaluate which teams are under-performing or over-achieving. It's a good time to try and find teams that are priced up wrong for what they've achieved so far in terms of results.
One team that stand out like a sore thumb in terms of over-achievement are Millwall. Two narrow 1-0 wins at home and a smash and grab draw at West Brom have left them sitting pretty on seven points in the Sky Bet Championship, however, their 4-0 thrashing at Fulham in midweek was more a return to the mean. Neil Harris' men look like relegation candidates, who have landed a couple of hard-hitting punches early on. Only Huddersfield and Barnsley have allowed more shots on target this season than Millwall (22). But the red warning light surrounds their paltry return of just 10 chances created from open play in those four games - nine fewer than any other team. Leeds have created 45.
Yes, a Harris Millwall team are always going tobe heavily set-piece focused and hard to beat but this is a team that won't find much after falling behind in a game when the onus is on them to attack. A slog of a season awaits, I'm certain.
A trip to Middlesbrough this weekend should result in another defeat. The Evens available for a home win should be thrown into all your Accas.
Those on the Jones Knows train will have to wait until Sunday afternoon to see whether the double has copped. My eyes are drawn to Wolves at home to Burnley, a game that kicks off at 4.30pm but is not one of our live Super Sunday encounters.
Sean Dyche's wizardry to get Burnley winning football matches in the Premier League despite hardly creating any chances looks to be continuing this season. Stats and logic go out of the window where they are concerned.
For example, Burnley managed to beat Wolves 2-0 last season at Turf Moor by only having one shot on target. What is this sorcery?
But despite that result, Wolves are set up perfectly at home to stifle Burnley's direct approach. Wolves are equally as tedious to watch but have much more creative players to cause damage in the final third. I covered their 1-0 win over Burnley in the reverse fixture last season and it could be defined as a 1-0 thrashing. Wolves had 30 shots but found Joe Hart in stupendous form.
With both teams adopting similar styles of football this season with the same squads, a repeat home win looks far more possible than the 10/11 available.
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