Jones Knows: Back second-half goals for Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig at 4/1
Our tipster is back; so is Super 6 with a Bundesliga twist this week...£50,000 is up for grabs!
Friday 15 May 2020 18:27, UK
The return of the Bundesliga has tempted our tipster Jones Knows out of his betting lockdown and he's got eyes on a 4/1 shot this weekend.
Anyone else tired of watching sport knowing how it's going to end? Yes, 'Agueroooo' scores. Europe produce a Miracle at Medinah. Gareth Southgate misses that penalty. I'm over the re-runs now.
Knowing the result is not why we fell in love with this great game.
Of course, the lack of our traditional means of entertainment is truly put into perspective by the unrepresented and worrying times we find ourselves in.
But, in the distance, there is a beacon of light in the form of the Bundesliga.
The oasis in the desert where we can sip on a drop of hope and respite from our strange world. It's something to grasp for.
It's not perfect and might not return as the game we once knew but, boy, it's nice to crack open the betting brain, get the juices flowing and analyse football matches not knowing how they're going to end.
The unpredictability. How I've missed you. I'll never take you for granted again.
Although it's been a while, remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together.
1pt on the second half to produce the most goals in Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke & RB Leipzig vs Freiburg (4/1 with Sky Bet) - bet here!
The way my brain looks at the challenge of making profitable betting decisions centres on my ability of utilising knowledge of a certain subject while backing those thought processes up with data analysis. Once you've combined the two to present the possibility of that scenario occurring you've then got to analyse whether the level of probability against the odds offered by the bookmaker in question. Still with me?
Sticking to that won't put you far wrong, but we're in uncharted waters here. My basic knowledge of the Bundesliga gives me no edge like it would with the Premier League and we're also dealing with football not in the same form. No matter how much my punting juices are racing, the current situation is tempering my enthusiasm for a confident wager.
- You can follow all the Bundesliga action live on skysports.com. Get your fix with minute-by-minute coverage and reports from the weekend's biggest games, starting with the Revierderby between Borussia Dortmund and Schalke on Saturday, kick-off at 2.30pm.
Playing behind closed doors won't impact the game as much as people would like think though. Having a fierce competitive nature is what has got most professional footballers to the top - as long there is three points on the line and their reputations are on show to the watching world, then expect usual levels of bite in these matches, despite the eerie atmosphere.
It's proven very difficult to have a strong view in terms of predicting outcomes of matches when there are so many unknowns. Will the form hold up? I'm going to be swerving the result markets for a few weeks yet in order to understand the pattern of the matches and to collate some new data to analyse.
My main area of concern for trusting the previous form before the suspension is regarding the general fitness of players and their ability to perform to their optimum.
Players have been back training for over a month with all having to adhere to the 11-point list of guidelines regarding social distancing handed down from the DFL. Some players have trained in masks, players haven't been allowed to be put into 11 vs 11 match scenarios and even cardboard cut-outs have been used in some sessions to simulate opponents.
Just from a simple physiological perspective, players aren't going to be fully prepared or anywhere near 'football fit' enough to maintain performance levels for 90 minutes.
This is the basis of my angle for this weekend.
The lack of match practice factor has opened my eyes up to a theory that these first few matches of the Bundesliga will produce lots of action in the final stages of games as players, despite the introduction of the five substitutes rule, will begin to mentally and physically tire.
This should result in defensive mistakes and more goalscoring opportunities late on.
Finding a market to exploit this, admittedly, half-baked theory, has been a challenge but Sky Bet's offering of 'most goals in the second half' has got me interested with every price on every match this weekend available around Evens.
I'll be backing that outcome in each match of every game with small stakes and I'll take a cheeky stab at the 500/1 on offer for all nine matches to produce most goals in the second half - you'll find the bet by scrolling through the RequestABet section.
But my main recommendation for the purpose of this column is to advise taking advantage of the 4/1 for Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke and RB Leipzig vs Freiburg both to produce the most goals in the second half in the hope the rip-roaring strike forces at Dortmund and Leipzig feast upon a host of defensive slips as the game progresses.
Both Dortmund and Leipzig, who are heavily odds-on to win this weekend, made a habit of scoring second-half goals before the season was curtailed. Of the 68 goals scored by Dortmund this season, 45 of those have come after half-time - working out at 63 per cent and Leipzig have netted 35 goals after the break, the third most in the Bundesliga behind Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
Whether looking at past data really counts for much in a set of opening fixtures that could be ripe for a weird narrative is open to debate but if there is to be defensive vulnerability due to a lack of match fitness, these two attacks are suitably armed to be ruthless in their finishing.
Tread carefully though. And enjoy.
Super 6 is back - with a Bundesliga twist!
Can you predict the six correct scorelines for a chance to win £50,000? Play for free!
- Augsburg vs Wolfsburg
- Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin
- Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke
- Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn
- RB Leipzig vs Freiburg
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia M'gladbach
