After Wednesday's 7/1 winner, our tipster's season profit now stands at +33; play Super 6 on Saturday to stand a chance of winning £250,000!
Saturday 4 December 2021 17:42, UK
Burnley to beat Newcastle and both teams to score in West Ham vs Chelsea should be backed in a 11/2 double, says Jones Knows.
A 7/1 winner not only boosted the coffers but was a timely reminder of how fortunes can quickly change for a punter.
I was on the floor after last weekend when Reece James was a shot on target away from landing a beautifully constructed 11/1 bet in Chelsea vs Manchester United. A little bit of luck was needed, we got none that day.
However, luck came flooding my way in midweek, helping to give the 7/1 treble involving Newcastle vs Norwich to have 25 or more shots, Brighton to avoid defeat at West Ham and 40+ booking points in Wolves vs Burnley that winning feeling.
As injury-time ticked away at St James' Park, we were four shots short of landing the first leg of the bet. If it was a betting slip, I'd have crumbled it up and thrown it in the bin. After the sending-off of Ciaran Clark, shots were in short supply.
However, four quickfire Norwich shots in injury-time left the shot count on 25, scraping us home. Then, somehow, Brighton and the usually wayward Neal Maupay managed to rescue a point with one minute left against West Ham, despite only having 10 men. A goal out of nowhere, but one that was met by glee in the Jones Knows household.
So, with Wolves and Burnley going card crazy, a 7/1 shot that probably touched at least four-times that price in-running at various stages came home a winner.
Sometimes average bets win, and great bets lose. It's all part of the fun and games.
P+L = +33
When you factor in Chelsea's overperformance in defence in relation to their expected goals data, it certainly opens the door for a consistently dangerous attack like West Ham to trouble the scorers in the lunchtime kick-off. That makes the 4/5 on both teams scoring very appealing. The Hammers have scored in 21 of their last 24 matches across all competitions and 63 per cent of their games since the start of last season has seen both teams score - the second-highest strike rate in the Premier League.
I'm happy to double that bet up with Burnley to beat Newcastle, which rates as my strongest fancy of the weekend.
Burnley are usually very hard to beat in these 'six-pointer' scenarios. In the last three seasons in 28 games against teams that finished that season in the bottom five, Burnley have lost just three of those games, winning 16 at a healthy strike-rate of 57 per cent. Two of those defeats can be excused too as a 4-2 defeat at Fulham came early in the season in August and the 1-0 loss at Sheffield United at the end of last season was very much a dead-rubber. When it matters, Burnley can be relied upon to deliver in a relegation scrap.
