The round of 16 concludes on Tuesday with Portugal vs Switzerland; Jones Knows is back with his last-16 predictions and he thinks both games on Tuesday could go all the way to penalties
Tuesday 6 December 2022 19:01, UK
The World Cup round of 16 is in full swing and our tipster Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair to dig out some juicy betting angles.
I think the markets have priced this one all wrong. Portugal are 2/5 with Sky Bet to qualify and Switzerland are 7/4.
Those figures hugely undervalue the Swiss and their nous at playing in these type of knockout situations - they are a devilishly hard team to knock out as seen when taking both France and Spain to penalties in the last European Championships. Keep it simple and back them to qualify against a Portugal side that look overrated on what we've seen so far.
Along with staying in matches when under the cosh, what good tournament sides do is carry a big threat from set-pieces.
As mentioned, last-16 World Cup matches since 1998 average a goal from a set-piece every 0.6 games which is a huge number and shows just how important those margins can be in knockout football.
Manchester City defender Manuel Akanji has had three shots at this World Cup, generating an expected goals tally of 0.4 as he somehow failed to open the scoring from eight yards out in the win over Cameroon. He is a threat from set-piece situations and the 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to have one or more shots looks a fantastic starting point for a punt on this match. Those with a greater desire to dream should also be pointed in the direction of the 66/1 for him to score first and the 40/1 to score a header.