Manchester United have a 27 per cent chance of top-four finish
Friday 29 May 2020 06:34, UK
The Premier League is set to return on June 17 but how high or low could your club finish in the league this season?
Data guru Ben Mayhew has simulated every possible result from the remaining 92 games and calculated each club's range of possible final league positions - in addition to probabilities for each standing.
The results reveal it's all to play for in the race for Champions League qualification and the battle for top-flight survival...
Each club’s attacking and defensive strength have been rated using an expected goals model, which measures the quality of chances they create and allow.These ratings were then used to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to measure the probability of each club finishing in each league position.
Liverpool have just a 0.02 per cent chance of ceding their 25-lead atop the table, with Manchester City nailed down with a 99-per-cent guarantee for runners-up spot.
Chelsea are favourites to land fourth spot, behind Leicester, but Manchester United still have a 27 per cent chance of achieving a top-four finish.
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In terms of extreme possibilities, Manchester City could still finish as low as 14th, while every team below Leicester could finish bottom of the table.
On paper, all 20 clubs still have a chance of finishing in the top four - including rock-bottom Norwich - but the probability of Daniel Farke's men actually achieving Champions League qualification is effectively zero.
Everton currently sit in 12th spot but the probabilities suggest realistic finishes all the way up to seventh place - suggesting the turnaround in form under Carlo Ancelotti is expected to continue.
In terms of relegation, the algorithm hands Norwich a slim five cent chance of survival. For Aston Villa, that probability to avoid the drop soars to 30 per cent - behind Bournemouth (36 per cent) and Watford (67 per cent).
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