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Thursday 3 November 2022 22:54, UK
Man United have only scored three goals in their last three home games and West Ham are improving , says tipster Jones Knows, who attacks the weekend card fresh from a 6/1 best bet winner last week.
It is proving a profitable theory to back out-an-out centre forwards to score against Fulham.
Despite their impressive run of results, Marco Silva's men, who have conceded two or more goals in 10 of their 13 fixtures in all competitions this season, are vulnerable through the heart of their defence.
Just look at the list of strikers to have notched against them this season: Gianluca Scamacca, Michail Antonio, Callum Wilson, Taiwo Awoniyi, Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Darwin Nunez, Dominic Solanke and Rodrigo.
If Dominic Calvert-Lewin isn't licking his lips ahead of his 200th league appearance, he should be now reading this. He looked back to somewhere near his best in the 3-0 win over Crystal Palace, scoring a fine individual goal as the impact on how Everton fare with him in the team was clear to see. They have scored 1.5 goals per game in his 17 Premier League starts since the start of last season and just 0.8 per game in 33 without him. The 15/8 with Sky Bet anytime price has to be backed.
If Jesse Marsch can convince Leeds to remain playing with attacking bravery despite their eight-game winless run, there could be goals for them at Anfield. Marsch feels the underlying numbers showcase that his Leeds side are doing plenty of things right despite their winless run. I can see his point.
And this might be a nice fixture for Leeds with expectations very low as the path to Alisson's goal has become far more welcoming this season.
Although Liverpool are facing a similar average of shots per game as last season, the shots they do face tend to be big chances as teams are getting pretty savvy at attacking the space vacated by Liverpool's rampaging full-backs. Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli, Wilfred Zaha and Marcus Rashford have all showed opposition teams the way at getting at Liverpool's aggressive risk-reward defensive structure. Leeds will try and follow suit.
The average expected goal figure of Liverpool's shots faced is the highest of any Premier League team this season while they have given up the joint-most big chances (as defined by Opta). The markets have cottoned on to Liverpool's drop in defensive numbers though and the offering of 8/13 with Sky Bet for both teams to score is on the skinny side. It's time to get greedy then and to consider backing Leeds to score two or more at 11/4.
With Leeds fancied to score multiple goals, the match prediction has to take Liverpool on at the prices.
Talk of a potential Arsenal wobble can be put to bed here. The Gunners rate as very reliable customers for short-price backers when a bottom-half team rocks up at The Emirates.
The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 33 home Premier League games against newly-promoted teams, winning 28, since a 1-0 defeat vs Newcastle in 2010. Yes, Mikel Arteta's boys have looked a little leggy in away games at Leeds and Southampton but there remains an impressive control and strong team ethic to their play which should help them find a way past the Nottingham Forest block.
However, the hectic schedule is making it tough for Arsenal to produce fireworks and high energy for longer periods in matches which is seeing the total goal count in their matches drop quite considerably. Over the first 11 games this season, Arsenal matches were averaging 3.5 goals per game. However, over the past five matches, this has dropped to 1.25 total goals with just five scored in four matches. This should be one of those 'job done' type of wins, so the Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals selection at 6/5 with Sky Bet looks a play.
Erik ten Hag has got Manchester United sharp and solid in midfield and there looks a fantastic team spirit finally being built within the playing staff judging by their late rally at Chelsea.
Yet, saying all this, should they really be 4/6 with Sky Bet to beat an equally improving West Ham side who possess the best holding midfield in the Premier League in Declan Rice?
I'd argue that price is short enough. For all their improvements this is still a transitional period for United and there have been periods of struggle trying to break down a well-drilled defence lately. Just three goals scored in their last three home games against Omonia Nicosia, Newcastle and Tottenham despite have 77 shots on goal does point to a lack of quality chances being created.
West Ham have the tools to frustrate, plus their potency on the counter-attack and physicality at set-pieces makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. They also arrive with some impressive attacking metrics from their last five fixtures. It's equated to West Ham creating a total expected goals return of 9.38 and posting 88 shots at goal - they rank first for both metrics of all Premier League teams in that period.
David Moyes may have never won a Premier League game at Old Trafford as opposing manager in 15 visits with 11 defeats, however, West Ham won 1-0 last season in the League Cup.
I'm happy to back the Hammers to make this a difficult evening for United and take the 6/5 for them to win or draw. For the purposes of a match prediction when assessing the prices, the away win at 4/1 does feel a little too large to ignore.
