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Saturday 17 February 2024 14:24, UK
Fresh from a 13/2 weekend winning treble, Jones Knows is back in the tipping chair and is backing Arsenal's set-piece threat at Burnley.
We were due one weren't we?
After near miss after near miss across the season, finally the best-bet treble landed at a juicy 13/2 to give us a profit of +4.5 for the weekend and edge us closer to being in the green for the season.
Enzo Fernandez didn't half make us sweat though to deliver on his two or more shots in Chelsea's win over Crystal Palace.
With the Darwin Nunez offside and BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Luton's clash with Sheffield United already in the bag, Fernandez took until the 94th minute to fire his second shot of the game - the third goal - and leave me dancing around my living room. Don't get too up, don't get too down is usually my modus operandi but this winner felt good.
Of course, there was still frustration to be had. Morgan Gibbs-White racked up an expected goals tally of 0.31 from his three shots against Newcastle but couldn't land the 6/1 anytime scorer punt, while the over 4.5 goal angle in Luton vs Sheffield United at 9/2 looked in a great position with the score at 1-3 to Sheffield United with 18 minutes plus added time left. But no late goal came. Fiddlesticks.
I think this is a cracker - arguably, one of the most exciting punts of the season so far, hence my double stakes.
Arsenal have scored a league-high 16 goals from set-pieces, including scoring twice in the 3-1 win over Burnley from corners. My colleague Sam Blitz broke down Arsenal's set-piece prowess earlier this week - well worth a watch below.
Declan Rice has become a key part of Arsenal's strength from dead balls. Rice only took three corners in the first 20 Premier League games. Since then, he has taken 12 corners in four games and provided three assists from set-pieces, two of them coming against West Ham. His inswinging deliveries from the left are usually on point.
Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford has been exposed by such tactics this season under the high ball so I'm firmly expecting Rice to provide opportunities for William Saliba, who scored in the corresponding fixture, and the bulldozing Gabriel, who has scored three times in the Premier League this season.
I'm looking to combine both angles and would advise taking the 11/1 on Rice providing an assist for either Saliba or Gabriel.
Wolves are smart and streetwise enough to extend Tottenham's run without a clean sheet and I can't resist the 5/1 with Sky Bet on offer for Pedro Neto to score anytime.
His ability to move with great electricity with the ball is bound to expose Spurs in wide areas and no Premier League player is averaging more shots from fast breaks per 90 than Neto this season (0.65). In his last five game since returning from injury he's posted 12 shots, six of them on target and scored two goals. With Matheus Cunha out, he'll be tasked with the responsibility of leading the Wolves charge in forward areas and chances should fall his way against this opponent.
Hopefully winning trebles will be like London buses. This certainly has a chance.
We start, always dangerously, with the early kick-off.
Liverpool may have only conceded 13 goals on the road - the second-best defensive record in the Premier League, but the underlying metrics point to an overachievement on that front. The chances they've shipped, using the expected goals against model, shows a result of 19.11 - an overperformance of six goals. That per 90 average of 1.59 expected goals against is only the fifth best in the Premier League - even Everton (1.54) sit above them on that front.
A regression could be on the horizon, so Brentford are capable of scoring twice, especially with their main man Ivan Toney back and among the goals. Of course, it's hard to keep the Liverpool attack quiet too - they've scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 24 Premier League games. Goals look on the menu so backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals around 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
On the three previous occasions David Moyes' West Ham side have conceded five or more goals in a game, the very next game has seen West Ham win without conceding a goal.
Keeping along those lines, my eyes have been drawn to the 6/5 with Sky Bet on offer on 'no' in the both teams to score market vs Nottingham Forest which does seem generous when you factor in the likely ultra-defensive approach on show from West Ham. They won't allow Forest to unleash many counter-attacks. It's a bet that would have copped in nine of West Ham's last 13 fixtures. I think it'll go in again.
And finally, Luton look a fantastic bet to win more corners than United at a juicy 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Regular readers will know all about how the Luton corner lines have spiked recently to the extent that they've won more corners than the opposition in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions. The aggregate corner count over those fixtures reads Luton 64-29 Opposition. A pummelling.
United's low corner count in away fixtures against bottom-half teams also offers further confidence behind a Luton corner win. In their last 15 matches against bottom-half teams on the road, United have won just four of the corner counts with the aggregate score reading Man Utd 64-88 Opposition. They've also only won six or more corners in just two of those 15 fixtures. The lines look all wrong, so there's huge value to be had backing Luton to win the corner count.
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