Sky Sports News senior reporter Geraint Hughes reflects on a first major qualifying campaign for Wales without their talisman Gareth Bale, one which has ended in a March play-off and the chance of making it through to next summer's Euros in Germany
Tuesday 6 February 2024 16:27, UK
Eight matches over eight months, but the job to reach Euro 2024 goes on. Gruelling and energy-sapping at times, yet there's no time to dwell on what might have been. 'What could still be' is the task ahead.
Wales boss Rob Page will next week get his coaches and staff together as they plan for March's play-off semi-final. The Wales boss has already made it clear that's happening. Before then Page barely rests, less than an hour after full-time on Tuesday night he was anxious to keep going, keep on the move, keep the momentum.
"I'm off to Switzerland," he told me as we grabbed a word in a corridor at the Cardiff City Stadium. He wants to know as soon as possible whether he's to prepare Wales to face Iceland, Finland or Ukraine. If Page had his way, he wouldn't be waiting until March; that semi-final play-off would be happening in two weeks' time.
Is this the route to the Euros that always was to await Wales? Yes, Wales created a chance to qualify automatically and it's the results against Armenia home and away that scuppered that, but it was interesting to listen to the Wales boss a couple of times over the past few days weave into discussion what he and his staff had forecast before even a ball was kicked in anger during this campaign.
They looked at the eight matches they would play and made a realistic, and I'm sure they'd say pragmatic, assessment of how each game would pan out - three points there, a draw there, probably an away defeat etc.
Page said Wales points wise were pretty much where was forecast, while acknowledging underachievement against Armenia, but overachieving against Croatia.
What have Wales learned about themselves in their first qualifying campaign in over a decade without Gareth Bale? Bale was such a massive figure in the Welsh setup, on and off the pitch.
His presence was God-like, he'd lift the young players in squad training sessions and I've been told stories by players how opponents in the tunnel before kick-off would line upside alongside the Wales players and all crane their necks around for a look at Bale.You could read their thoughts: "Oh no, what's he going to do to us?"
Bale knew it and was a master at playing the opponent, even when far from 100 per cent fit. He'd frighten an opponent by biding his time and then punish them in an instant. That's what Wales this campaign have had to play without.
Young players have come in and impressed, Jordan James at 19 years of age the standout, with whispers abounding about a January move to the Premier League. Ethan Ampadu at 23 is now looking a model of consistency in midfield, his move to Leeds offering stability after several years living out of a suitcase in Italy's Serie A.
A first campaign in ages without [Gareth] Bale was a tough ask to keep the major tournament qualification bandwagon going, so perhaps the position Wales are in is exactly what they'd hoped for eight months ago. It's realistic.
Twenty-two-year-old Brennan Johnson is showing glimpses of what Tottenham hope to develop. Page's position as manager was brought into full glare when a report several weeks ago suggested the FAW Chief Executive had been looking to replace him, but Page's argument and indeed position is surely strong - he has a background with U21 players and a record of bringing through young players.
Wales don't have the luxury of the abundant golden apple tree to find the next Bale, they've got to search hard and wide for rare diamonds and see if they polish up to international standard.
A first campaign in ages without Bale was a tough ask to keep the major tournament qualification bandwagon going, so perhaps the position Wales are in is exactly what they'd hoped for eight months ago. It's realistic.
And so to taking one game at a time and to stay with large doses of realism. A one-off game in Cardiff in front of 'The Red Wall' versus either Ukraine, Iceland or Finland - who would you back to win?
Wales must navigate the play-offs in March to reach the European Championship finals next summer.
If they do so, it will be Wales' fourth major tournament out of the last five.
How did Wales get here?
It has been a campaign of transition without talismanic captain Gareth Bale following his retirement in January and the loss of other key players such as midfielder Joe Allen.
Wales began well with a bonus point away to World Cup semi-finalists Croatia - courtesy of Nathan Broadhead's stoppage-time equaliser - and a narrow home win over Latvia.
But a sour summer - back-to-beat defeats against Armenia and Turkey - would cost them dear, despite bouncing back with a 2-0 success in Latvia and a sensational 2-1 home victory over Croatia.
Wales had automatic qualification in their hands heading into the final two games, but ultimately fell short with closing 1-1 draws against Armenia and Turkey. Croatia and Turkey qualified as the top two in Group D.
Play-off scenario
Wales will discover at 11am on Thursday morning who their semi-final opponents will be on March 21. Manager Rob Page will attend the draw in Switzerland to get a flavour of what stands in his side's way.
It is a case of one from three countries as Finland, Iceland or Ukraine will be paired with Wales in Path A. The winners of that tie will play Poland or Estonia in the play-off final on March 26 for the right to play at Euro 2024.
Home sweet home
Wales will have home advantage for the semi-final, which will be played at Cardiff City Stadium.
That is a huge boost for Wales who have had some special nights in Cardiff in recent times, and beat both Austria and Ukraine there in the 2022 World Cup play-offs.
The Nyon draw on Thursday will also decide who gets home advantage for the March 26 final. Wales got the breaks in the 2022 World Cup play-offs with two home ties. Will they be as fortunate again?
Who do Wales want?
Ukraine are 22nd in the FIFA rankings, six places above Wales, and present the toughest test on paper.
They were third in England's qualifying group and might already be preparing for Germany had they been awarded what appeared a certain stoppage-time penalty against Italy on Monday.
Finland won six of their 10 qualifiers and finished four points behind Denmark and Slovenia, while Iceland won only three times in 10 games and were a distant fourth to Portugal, Slovakia and Luxembourg.
Whoever they play, Wales enter the play-offs with confidence after an unbeaten six-game run of three wins and three draws.
