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Analysis

Republic of Ireland's nightmare Nations League record undermining progress under Stephen Kenny

Republic of Ireland have not won any of the 12 Nations League fixtures they have played under Martin O'Neill and Stephen Kenny and have scored only two goals in the process; Scotland visit the Aviva Stadium on Saturday

Republic of Ireland remain winless in the Nations League
Image: Republic of Ireland remain winless in the Nations League

Republic of Ireland will attempt to bounce back from their disappointment of successive defeats at the start of their Nations League campaign as they welcome Scotland to the Aviva Stadium on Saturday evening.

Stephen Kenny's men lost 1-0 against Armenia in Yerevan last weekend in a game they had high hopes of winning to end their drought in the competition and Oleksandr Petrakov's Ukraine then won by the same scoreline in Dublin on Wednesday.

Kenny said afterwards: "We're hurting at the moment and we don't have time for that because such is the quick turn-around here. We've got to get ourselves ready for Scotland."

With input from our Republic of Ireland correspondent Guy Havord, Sky Sports takes a look at the issues that manager Kenny must address if matters are to improve and something can be salvaged from this faltering group stage...

What problems have the two defeats exposed?

Kenny shows his despair against Ukraine
Image: Kenny shows his despair against Ukraine

Ukraine bounced back from their World Cup heartache to win in Dublin and the fact they did this despite making 10 changes to the team which lost to Wales demonstrated not only their strength in depth but also highlighted again the lack of cutting edge and creativity available to opposite number Kenny.

Shane Duffy was denied by the woodwork late on but Ireland would ultimately pay the price for goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher being on his heels for Viktor Tsygankov's 48th-minute free-kick.

Even when they did find time and space, poor decision-making meant goalkeeper Andriy Lunin barely had a save of note to make, and Kenny's hopes of winning the League B group already look forlorn ahead of Scotland's visit to Dublin on Saturday following back-to-back defeats by Armenia and Ukraine.

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Ireland started and finished brightly at the Aviva Stadium but what transpired in between was depressingly familiar. That set-pieces remain the side's biggest threat is a concern.

Asked if he was surprised his side had not opened their account, Kenny said: "We wanted to do that and we haven't done that, that's for sure, particularly with the game in Armenia.

"We always knew that Ukraine would be a tough game - they got to the quarter-finals of the European Championships, they're a quality team, so that was always going to be a tough game. But of course, we would want points. I'm just raging that we didn't get at least one win there in the two narrow games."

Senior players must stand up and be counted

John Egan is a doubt to face Scotland
Image: John Egan is a doubt to face Scotland

With Matt Doherty unavailable for selection through injury, skipper Seamus Coleman's absence with a groin problem against Ukraine left a sizeable hole for Kenny to plug on the right side of his defence.

The Everton man operated as a wing-back in Yerevan, a position which was subsequently occupied by specialist Cyrus Christie in the 1-0 home defeat to Ukraine. Kenny hinted he could also contemplate a more inventive solution moving forward, but the visit of Scotland is an opportunity for him to land a statement win.

But other senior members of Kenny's squad must lead by example during another transitional period. John Egan is confident the Republic of Ireland have the character to bounce back.

Shane Duffy is one of the side's biggest threats
Image: Shane Duffy is one of the side's biggest threats

After facing Scotland is the return game against the Ukrainians in the Polish city of Lodz next Tuesday with questions once again being asked, but Egan is expecting a response.

The 29-year-old Sheffield United defender said: "That's football. You get knocked back and it is all about how you respond to it and how you bounce back. We have a changing room in there where everybody wants to bounce back and put it right next Saturday.

"The players always give 100 per cent and that's the least you can expect when you put on an Ireland jersey. Everybody has given everything, we want to win the game but came out on the wrong end of a tight game.

"Listen, it is one game at a time. We have to try and get back into it on Saturday. Obviously it is not the start we wanted, but we have to keep going, keep looking at the next game."

Is there real reason to panic?

Republic of Ireland have lost their opening two Nations League matches after defeat to Ukraine in Dublin
Image: Republic of Ireland have lost their opening two Nations League matches

Republic of Ireland's results had improved markedly prior to the most recent consecutive setbacks. Kenny's first 11 games failed to yield a single victory but they had gone unbeaten in eight before the defeat in Armenia.

The fact remains that they have not won any of the 12 Nations League fixtures they have played under Martin O'Neill and Kenny and have scored only two goals in the process.

The Republic have now drawn five and lost seven games over three editions of the Nations League, the first of them under O'Neill, and while Kenny points to the Covid-19 issues which impacted upon his first campaign, the trend is dispiriting.

Six of the defeats have come courtesy of a single goal, but Ireland's shortage of goals come despite Kenny's attempts to play a more expansive game.

In truth, they have rarely threatened to improve upon that statistic either in Yerevan or against Ukraine. Perhaps more worryingly, they have not won a competitive game in Dublin since they beat Gibraltar 2-0 in June 2019.

Analysis: Kenny is now being judged by results

Viktor Tsygankov scored for the first time in his last 13 appearances for Ukraine, since netting in a 1-1 draw against Bahrain in May 2021.
Image: Viktor Tsygankov scored for the first time in his last 13 appearances for Ukraine, since netting in a 1-1 draw against Bahrain in May 2021.

Sky Sports reporter Guy Havord said:

"Kenny would be under pressure if Republic of Ireland were to lose a third game - there's no doubt about it. It would be a signature win to beat Scotland and there's no doubt it would take the heat off him.

"He was under pressure during his first year and it felt like a referendum against him back then over whether he should stay or go. He then stabilised things up until March this year, collecting some good results with youngster coming through.

"There had been a lot of optimism for this Nations League, in part generated by him saying back in the Spring that his target was to win the group.

"The goal was to be a second seed for the draw for Euro 2024, which is one of the rewards of doing this, as well as qualification for Group A of this competition.

"Unlike some other countries, the Nations League is really important for Ireland because they had such a disappointing World Cup qualifying campaign and failed to get to the last Euros despite getting to the play-offs.

"They needed a decent campaign and now Kenny is being judged by results. In the first two years, the fans and the media were largely understanding that he was blooding new players and more importantly he was trying to change the style to being more possession-based.

"Most supporters were behind him and the atmosphere post-lockdown at the Dublin games against Portugal, Serbia and Belgium was terrific. You felt the fans had bought into the young team.

"This Nations League campaign is not about performances or blooding youngsters - it's about results, which is why they've been quite stark and have been a huge disappointment. The Armenia defeat has shaken things up as I've not sure many people saw that coming."

Time for fringe players to prove worth

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Republic of Ireland manager Stephen Kenny insists his side are improving despite back to back defeats against Armenia and Ukraine.

Ireland headed into uncharted territory with four fixtures in 11 days but so far they have failed to negotiate them. The first involved a lengthy journey and 90 hard minutes under the Armenian sun.

Egan is now a doubt for the Scotland game after he limped off after 62 minutes against Ukraine, so Kenny could be scratching around for solutions again.

The beleaguered boss inevitably has to shuffle his pack and although he is not minded to make wholesale changes, the likes of Jason Knight, who did not make the starting line-up at the Republican Stadium against Armenia, didn't take his chance against Ukraine.

Dara O'Shea, James McClean and Alan Browne were all introduced during a frantic final half an hour and all three will be pushing for a start against Scotland for the chance to stake a claim for more regular inclusion.

"I think Kenny will freshen it up again," said Havord. "Michael Obafemi might get a start against Scotland. He's had two substitute appearances so far and wasn't very good in Armenia but he was better against Ukraine. He was in terrific form with Swansea so he could start but it's not like there are real big-hitters he can call upon.

"Nathan Collins' performances has been one of the few positives to come out of the games so far. He's definitely one for the future and he looks like he's here to stay. He's a player in the making.

"There is a lack of creativity in midfield which has been there for a few years in terms of a ball-playing midfielder and a good dribbler. Jeff Hendrick had a good year or so under Kenny but he's been out of form so Browne and Conor Hourihane could come in."

Is Kenny under pressure?

Stephen Kenny remains bullish in defeat
Image: Stephen Kenny remains bullish in defeat

Kenny has spent much of his reign to date having to answer criticism. He had to wait until his 12th game in charge to record a first win, and that over minnows Andorra, and although Ireland had gone eight matches without defeat before Saturday's 1-0 reverse in Armenia, the last two results have taken some of the sheen off that run.

There have been admirable performances - they were unfortunate to lose their World Cup qualifier in Portugal in September last year as Cristiano Ronaldo got the hosts out of jail, and secured a creditable 2-2 friendly draw with a much-changed Belgium side in March.

Weeks earlier, Kenny had been rewarded with a contract extension to largely popular acclaim, although his side's failings this week, and in particular the lack of creativity and cutting edge which have hampered their efforts, have added fuel to the fires of his detractors.

"We're disappointed in the last couple of games. I think we are building something really progressive," the defiant Ireland boss said.

"Statistically we are not backing that up, I know that, but I think we're building something really progressive and I think people can see that.

"We weren't perfect today, we were OK and played well in spells. People have seen a lot of progression in the matches over the last 12 games.

"Obviously we have introduced a huge number of players who are getting better. We have missed a few players in this camp, but that is part of it, we can't use that as an excuse.

"But we have to dust ourselves down. We have no points after these two games. We should have more on the board, but we don't. We just need to try and get a big win against Scotland on Saturday."

Plenty of effort but no ruthless streak

Chiedozie Ogbene in action against Armenia
Image: Chiedozie Ogbene has called for a more ruthless streak

"Ireland don't have a good record against teams ranked higher than them," Havord said. "In fact, they've not won against a team above them in the FIFA world rankings in a competitive home fixture since beating Bosnia and Herzegovina in November 2015.

"There was excitement to see what they could do against Ukraine and Scotland but to lose to Armenia pulled the rug from beneath them and thoughts of winning the group went with that one result. If they were to beat Scotland, the mood would change dramatically.

"Goals have been a problem ever since Robbie Keane retired and it's quite amazing how many strikers have been tried over the past four or five years. Callum Robinson and Chiedozie Ogbene seem the preferred options at the moment but Ogbene is better on the right as part of a front three. Playing with his back to goal doesn't get the best out of him."

Missed chances has been a theme under Kenny and Ukraine's ranking of 27 in the world meant the side needed to be clinical in midweek. The same can be applied against an improving Scotland, who showed no sign of a World Cup hangover in defeating Armenia at Hampden Park just a week after their own disappointment at the hands of Ukraine.

"The goal itself was a fluke," Kenny contended. "It's just a free-kick that took a massive jump off the ground into the net. I can't fault the players, the players left everything out there. They gave absolutely everything.

"I asked them before the game, 'It's not enough just to give 100 per cent, you've got to extract every ounce of yourself in trying to get the result that we need', and I thought the players gave absolutely everything of themselves there tonight."

Does Kenny need to be harder on his players in public? Republic of Ireland need to be far more ruthless if they are to prosper.

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