Jones Knows betting column: A length away from landing £50,000
The Premier League is back; Jones Knows fancies Nathan Redmond to score
Last Updated: 10/08/19 11:48am
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Just one week into the birth of the Jones Knows and it was nearly curtains for the column.
No, the powers at be weren't planning on pulling the plug after the first two tips flopped on week one, the end was nigh due to a betting incident that would've changed my life.
Those with a punting persuasion like mine dream of toppling the bookmakers with hope of potentially living a full-time, professional betting lifestyle without the restraints a full-time job has on our ability to spend time plotting and finding angles to beat the market.
You need a bulky bank behind you to be able to give that pro punting lifestyle a go. My ambition to build that bank is ticking along, slowly but surely, too slowly at times - but I nearly was fast-tracked to the top table last Friday at Glorious Goodwood when I was one length and three quarters away from hitting the absolute motherload.
I fancied three horses on the card: Billesdon Brook 9/1, Beat Le Bon 8/1 and Dylan La Vega 7/1.
The bets were placed: an each-way Trixie. A win treble. And four win doubles.
Billesdon Brook wins. Beat Le Bon wins.
Dylan La Vega, whose price drifted out to 14/1 meaning the returns would multiply further, is now running to win me nearly £50,000 - absolutely life changing for this average Joe, no doubt.
I can confirm there was vomit on my sweater, mum's spaghetti.
The gates open. He doesn't break on terms - I lose heart, too good to be true, eh? Back to the daily grind I go. Hang on, he's come back on the bridle here - he's making a challenge up the rail. He passes three horses with a stylish turn of foot. I rise from my chair, almost losing my footing as the adrenaline flushes through my body. Stay strong Jones - passing out now helps no one.
Oh my god - he hits the front with a furlong to run.
For that split second, the world was a majestic place. All the hard yards, relentless form study, the doubting of my ability to make this pastime profitable - it was all coming together. This was why I was put on this Earth - for this moment. A game changer of epic proportions. Thank you, Jesus.
Oh no. The horse on his outside rallies. Get in the bin, Jesus.
Dylan La Vega can give no more. Homespin wins by a length and a quarter. Dylan La Vega finishes second.
The each-way part of the treble cops as do one of the win doubles which pays for a nice trip to Barcelona next week yet a case of what might have been will follow me around for a while. Hello old friend.
This train will hopefully one day will make it to my desired destination of freedom but for the time being we're being held at Shattered Dreams Parkway.
Get in touch!
Ever come close to landing a life changing amount? It's good to talk. Send me a tweet @_LJones_ or e-mail at Lewis.Jones@sky.uk and I'll publish the best stories in next week's column.
We get the wheels rolling again though as the Premier League returns to our screens this weekend.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: -3 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows....
Those that took a read of my ante-post preview for the Premier League season, will know I've put a fair few eggs in Nathan Redmond's basket this season.
Ante post Premier League preview
Jones Knows: Spurs to finish above Liverpool? Jamie Vardy top goalscorer?
Under Ralph Hasenhuttl he's been given a new lease of life in a central area and the boss has admitted to wanting a build the team around him. Redmond was involved in more Premier League goals than any other Southampton player (10 - six goals, four assists) under Hasenhuttl's stewardship last year but the markets aren't replicating that in their prices.
Along with Danny Ings, he's their chief goal threat but is priced up at a very juicy 9/2 to bag anytime when he really should be half that.
Our 'newly promoted teams being underrated by the markets' didn't quite cop last week as Luton were held 3-3 by Middlesbrough - and just to rub salt in those wounds, both fellow promotion newbies Charlton and Barnsley picked up three points. Plus, Leyton Orient and Salford both won on their step up to Sky Bet League Two. One week in and already this great game is tying me in knots.
With Norwich away at Liverpool and Aston Villa at Tottenham, Sheffield United bring the stronger case for a positive weekend result at Bournemouth, whose style of play always gives the opposition chances to score. Defensive and goalkeeper problems plagued their progress last season, ending with them possessing the third worst defensive record in the Premier League, behind Fulham and Huddersfield. I can see more of the same this season.
I'm expecting Chris Wilder's side to come out of the traps flying with no fear - like they did on countless occasions last season. They scored the opening goal in 32 Sky Bet Championship games last season - the most of any team. Prices of odds-against look very fair for it to happen again.
Fancy winning £2m?
No, this isn't some wild accumulator I'm tipping up, this is all about the Super 6, which is giving away £2m this weekend for predicting six correct scores.
It is free to play so do not miss out on a free hit at the largest Super 6 jackpot to date. Follow the link below to get involved.