"Frank Lampard's side are winless in their last three Premier League away games with the big worry being they haven't scored barring from set-pieces in those fixtures against Brighton, Newcastle and Leicester. Back Bournemouth."
Saturday 29 February 2020 09:23, UK
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
We've all suffered a bad beat over the years. It makes us stronger, so they say. I'm not so sure. My baddest beat in football betting came almost 10 years ago - a chilling experience that still leaves me wanting a hug from my mummy.
It was the 'Agueroooooo' season. I had taken an early-season view that Manchester United were coming to the end of their cycle and that Manchester City were the new dominant force - and by some way too. I put this theory to the test when the pair met in an early-season clash at Old Trafford and decided to invest in City to thrash United, backing Roberto Mancini's boys to win 4-1 (125/1) and 5-1 (200/1). Remember, back then United were favoured heavily by the markets, hence the monstrous odds on offer.
I had a tendency for a Saturday accumulator in my glory years too and landed one to decent amounts ahead of the Super Sunday fixture between United and City. This war-chest provided me with the opportunity to win enough money to buy a new car if either of the correct-score results came in. Never be afraid of price, a wise man once told me. So this was my time to act on it.
It was a thrilling football match to watch. With City winning 3-1 and looking a threat on the counter, my betting heaven was only just one goal away. And, when Edin Dzeko raced through the United backline to make it 4-1 in injury-time, I had done it.
I had reached betting immortality.
It was my Leo moment in Titanic. I was the king of the world. It doesn't get much better.
But yes it could. David Silva beats one, beats two and slams home for 5-1. A goal which upgraded the model of my chosen car. It would be known in investment circles as the 'three-figures to five-figures weekend'. Wall Street would be calling. I'm a financial genius.
But of course, there was still time. Time for the baddest of bad beats.
While salivating over the sight of my potential betting balance, Silva cushions the most perfect volley through on goal for Dzeko to chase. Please take it to the corner. No chance. Bang! 6-1.
Hold me mummy.
Ten years on and my battle is still ongoing with the bookmakers. After Allan Saint-Maximin's inability to fire last week for Newcastle, I'm back double-handed this week, including a double-stake recommendation. Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +11.5.
Chelsea may sit fourth in the Premier League and look set to qualify for the Champions League once again, but, to my eyes, big vulnerabilities are clear to see within Frank Lampard's squad, especially when they play away from home. And, despite Bournemouth's shaky season, there have been enough clues in recent weeks to imply that Eddie Howe has reinstalled their mojo to the extent that the current odds on a home win (4/1 with Sky Bet) are worth a strong investment on Saturday at 3pm.
Lampard's side are winless in their last three Premier League away games with the big worry being they haven't scored barring from set-pieces in those fixtures against Brighton, Newcastle and Leicester.
Finding that attacking cohesion in open play has become a problem for Lampard since Christmas with a total of four big chances created on the road in that time well below what you'd expect from a top-four side. That lack of creative spark was on show for large periods against Bayern Munich on Tuesday night. For a last-16 encounter in the Champions League, the mismatch levels were staggering as Chelsea were made to look very ordinary up against Bayern's energetic and ruthless style.
It's impossible to predict how much a defeat of that nature will affect the Chelsea confidence but data does suggest that teams playing their next game away from home after a Champions League knockout match can be vulnerable to an upset.
This was on full view last season when Tottenham were beaten at both Bournemouth and Southampton after European midweek knockout matches, as were Manchester United, who were thrashed 4-0 by Everton.
Of course, Bournemouth won't be bringing the same arsenal to this fight as Bayern did, but Howe's men are full of pace, power and trickery in the final third and have started to click again in recent weeks.
Home wins over Brighton and Aston Villa showcased that, but, even at Sheffield United and Burnley, Bournemouth's attacking rhythm and fluidity, which they have been famed for in recent years, seemed to be returning.
That is shown in their expected goals numbers. Howe's men have increased their xG per match over the last month. From December 2 to January 14, they were recording 0.59 xG per match. Since then they're at 1.48 xG per match with Callum Wilson looking sharper and more of a threat, increasing his xG from 0.05 to 0.5 per 90 minutes. With him in form and Nathan Ake fit to return, Bournemouth should be near full-strength.
Past meetings isn't usually an area I give too much weight to when assessing a match but further confidence for Bournemouth backers can be taken from the Cherries winning three of the last four meetings between the teams. This included a 4-0 hammering last season at the Vitality Stadium and a gritty 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in December.
The evidence tells me Chelsea are woefully short for this one. I'm happy to charge in on Bournemouth, who are overpriced.
Super 6: To Dare is to Do?
Although Chelsea suffered a European setback through the week, 82 per cent of Super 6 players are going against Jones Knows and are expecting them to take home three points from Bournemouth. Will you go against the grain and be part of the eight per cent of players who back a home win? Play for free.
Sean Dyche is at it again at Burnley. He's got his team organised, confident and scoring goals - it's yielding Premier League points. Their charge towards the European spots takes them to St James' Park this weekend where I'd be expecting them to leave with maximum points in the 3pm kick-off if they maintain their current levels of performance.
The outright match result prices, though, are about fair to my eyes with Burnley at 19/10 so I've gone fishing elsewhere for a bet. Jeff Hendrick is an underrated cog in this Burnley wheel. Since regaining his place on the right-hand side of midfield from Aaron Lennon against Leicester, Burnley have won four of their last five matches. His work-rate and desire stood out to me in their 2-1 win at Southampton, which has triggered my interest at tracking his tackling data.
He's gone from making just seven tackles in 19 previous appearances to recording 10 in his last three matches, including four in their recent fixture with Bournemouth. It seems as though he's been given more license to press higher in recent weeks and his tenacity is shining through.
Hendrick is of interest to make four or more tackles this weekend at a very generous 18/1 as Newcastle will be targeting much of their play down his side with Danny Rose and Saint-Maximin their main attacking outlets. The Irishman will be in the thick of things - let's hope he puts his foot in.
Super 6: Honours Even
Despite 13.5 per cent of Super 6 players backing a 2-1 scoreline, over 30 per cent have sat on the fence and predicted a 1-1 draw at St James' Park. Where will you play your cards, with £250k up for grabs? Play for free.
Super 6 fixtures: West Ham vs Southampton, Bournemouth vs Chelsea, Newcastle vs Burnley, West Brom vs Wigan, Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby, Fulham vs Preston.
