All I want for Christmas is a Brighton red card at 5/1 - Jones Knows betting column
"With tension in the air from past meetings, plus the added intensity of a match under the lights in south London, I'm certainly interested in Brighton's mood boiling over at 5/1"
Last Updated: 30/12/19 11:28am
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
"Steak, Andy, not cake!"
These were the words ringing around my head on Saturday evening after watching Andy Ruiz openly admit he'd not been sticking to a professional athlete's diet before his heavyweight title bout with Anthony Joshua.
Cheers, pal. You didn't fancy sharing that critical piece of information with those willing to take the 5/2 on your chances before the fight?
Well, Andrew, you ruined a day that started with such great potential.
Jones Knows followers hopefully feasted upon the 5/2 on offer for an Everton win at Chelsea that took this column to a +19 return for the season. I hope you all indulged on what was a very juicy bet, unlike muggins here, who decided to play the double and add a man that shares the same suit measurements as Mr Blobby to my Everton bet.
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That's one thing we do have in common, we're both too greedy for our own good.
Moving on. I've got my eyes on Monday Night Football this week. Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +19.
It's time to see if Jones Knows...
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Patience will be required as we have to wait until Monday Night Football for our next angle - but it will be worth the wait. Once again, I've found a betting opportunity in an unorthodox market that involves cards in what is usually a feisty affair between two rivals.
Brighton had five players carded in this reverse fixture last season at Selhurst Park last season while Shane Duffy saw red for a headbutt on Patrick van Aanholt in Brighton's 3-1 win over Palace at the Amex. With tension in the air from past meetings, plus the added intensity of a match under the lights in south London, I'm certainly interested in Brighton's mood boiling over. An occurrence that has already happened twice this season with Graham Potter's men having two men sent off.
Palace's pace on the counter-attack should yield plenty of opportunities for late challenges with Wilfried Zaha (53) and Jordan Ayew (35) both sitting in the top seven players in the Premier League for most fouls won this season. The likes of Brighton pair Lewis Dunk and Dale Stephens all are known for mistiming a tackle or two - as shown by a combined total of 11 yellow cards racked up between them already this season.
Additionally, Dan Burn has done a fine job on the left side of the Brighton defence but he did pick up bookings when marking speedsters such as Dan James against Manchester United and Adama Traore for Wolves, suggesting that if Zaha does switch wings, he could get Burn in trouble. Take the 5/1.
Bet from Saturday...
Warning: this bet isn't for everyone, on two counts.
Firstly, it makes me feel a bit queasy advising a selection at a short price and it's certainly not my style to be backing anything around Evens. With that in mind, those with similar feelings may not want to follow the points advice with this one and perhaps add it to your accumulator for the weekend.
Furthermore, not many can understand or feel the excitement about backing the amount of corners in a football match.
Trust me, you won't like it until you try it. Once you delve in, you'll be eager for more.
So, for the bet to win we're looking for Burnley to win the corners count by two or more - it's a bet that would have copped for the opponents in seven of Newcastle's eight away games this season. By hitting this link you'll find the market on Sky Bet under the 'Corners Taken -1.0'.
The way Steve Bruce sets up his team is unashamedly defensively orientated. It's a tactic that has yielded more points than expected this season but this deep block mentality gives away plenty of possession and therefore leaves them on the back foot in terms of putting pressure on their opponents. It's no surprise to see the Toon bottom of the corners won table with just 54 - that's 15 less than any other side.
The numbers get worse away from home, too, winning just 22 corners in their eight away fixtures while conceding 69. Included in that run are two games where they failed to win a single corner at Leicester and Chelsea and they lost the corner count 8-1 in their last road trip against Sheffield United despite winning the game 2-0.
Bruce is also travelling to Burnley without key wide man Allan Saint-Maximin, who offers most of their attacking outlet especially when it comes to winning corners and the equally tricky Miguel Almiron is a doubt. Burnley aren't afraid to get the ball forward quickly and their basic yet effective 4-4-2 formation certainly gives itself to the full-backs and wide men like Dwight McNeil and Robbie Brady getting into dangerous positions to win corners. I'd be stunned if they don't win the corner match race easily.
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