Manchester City vs Brighton and Tottenham vs Fulham on Wednesday, with Thursday's Arsenal vs Crystal Palace clash live on Sky Sports
Wednesday 13 January 2021 20:40, UK
Jones Knows is here for the midweek Premier League insights and betting angles.
If Manchester City play like they did in that jaw-dropping 15-minute spell against Chelsea then the rest should lay down their swords now in the title race. They could go unbeaten until the end of the season if maintaining that level of performance. It was deadly.
However, there's been too many stodgy showings still fresh in my mind to think that Pep Guardiola has got them back to the consistent beast they were 18 months ago. It was less than a month ago they were creating just a 1.87 xG figure in a 1-1 draw with West Brom at home.
There should be few problems on the horizon in this one, though. Brighton are starting to bore me. Graham Potter clearly is a coach capable of making players better footballers but from open play Brighton are yawn-inducing to watch in their current cycle of form.
If you exclude penalties and chances created from set pieces, in their last three Premier League games Brighton have created an xG of just 1.83 combined. I'm sure Potter will get Brighton flowing and confident again but where the chances are coming from is very much like the days under Chris Hughton. They are reliant on set pieces.
That won't be enough to break through a City defence that, since losing to Spurs in November, has conceded just twice in the Premier League and allowed just 56 shots on their goal - 18 fewer than any other rival. Home win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Despite reaching a major final, it's not been the festive period Jose Mourinho would have wanted. The Leicester defeat revealed there's still flaws in this Spurs side and they look a few points short of being able to compete with a fully revved up Liverpool and Manchester City. One of those flaws is being able to switch their style to chase a game at home - as seen when conceding first and losing to both Everton and Leicester this season. That factor does make them a hard team to trust at odds-on as the first goal in their games looks crucial to determining the outcome.
Can Fulham strike first?
Well, they haven't quite hit the heights they reached in their 2-1 win over Leicester in November and are winless since - albeit they have drawn their last four including against Liverpool. It's hard to foresee whether having over two weeks off from Premier League football will work in their favour or not. I can't trust them.
I'll go with an edgy home win. Quality will tell.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (10/1 with Sky Bet)
There are smiles on faces at The Emirates again. No squad in the Premier League rely on confidence flowing more than Arsenal's - granted, I can't back that up with any statistical evidence but there must be something in the water there that make heads drop and bottom lips tremble during a bad run.
It would not surprise me to see Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang go on a scoring streak now after he found the net in the FA Cup against Newcastle. When on song, he is on a par with Harry Kane when it comes to converting chances.
However, I'd rather invest and rave about Kieran Tierney, who isn't very Arsenal-like in terms of his attitude and consistency. His bottom lip stays strong. He is chasing a third assist in a row here, proving he has the quality in the final third to match his desire. Much of what Arsenal do rely on the full-backs providing an overload and Palace are likely to be exposed down that side. The odds on offer for a Tierney assist makes plenty of appeal.
Meanwhile, Palace remain a team with restrictions.
There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and Crystal Palace will be 14th in the Premier League.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
