Match highlights of every PL game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; watch Southampton vs Newcastle and Tottenham vs Liverpool live on Sky Sports on Super Sunday
Sunday 6 November 2022 16:19, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows assesses Sunday's Premier League action and wants to back Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool.
Chelsea remain a team overperforming according to the underlying numbers under Graham Potter, especially in attack.
In the six Premier League games he's overseen Chelsea have averaged a non-penalty expected goals tally of 1.06 per-90 - that's a disappointing return for a team that are being priced up as a top-four side and have had a soft run of games against the likes of Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. In comparison, Arsenal are working at a 1.82 non-penalty expected goals average per-90 this season.
That Chelsea average dropped to 0.28 when facing Manchester United - a genuine top-six ranked team - where Jorginho's penalty came out of nothing during a very stale attacking performance. There have been moments of incisive play under Potter, who I'm sure will get it right once working out all the parts to this Chelsea machine. Yet, without the natural width and creativity of Reece James and industry of N'Golo Kante, Chelsea are looking a little lost in this transitional period.
But there are concerns for Arsenal's attack when playing away from home, too. There has been a huge downward trajectory on their attacking numbers in their last four road trips in all competitions. They have scored just three goals and struggled for intensity against Southampton and Leeds without the added bonus of a pumped home crowd.
The outright betting has this an equal encounter with 13/8 available with Sky Bet on both teams. I'd be steering clear of that angle, although for the purposes of the prediction I'd side with Arsenal narrowly. My interest is in the under 2.5 goals line at 10/11 with Sky Bet in what could be a game where defences rule all.
This is how Unai Emery would want it to be in his first game. His Aston Villa side are the underdogs and will have a raucous home following roaring them on, buoyed by the exciting appointment. A quick look at the total goals return in his first competitive match in charge of a new side (Villarreal, Arsenal, PSG, Sevilla, Spartak Moscow, Valencia, Almeria and Lorca CF) shows that he can get to work quickly at setting up a team with good defensive structure. In those eight games, there was an average of just 1.87 total goals.
I'm fully expecting this encounter to follow that low goal average. Manchester United are a side going places but it's a style built on solidity and grabbing control of games at key moments. The attacking chemistry isn't quite at the levels demanded by Erik ten Hag as yet and it's lending itself to some low-scoring games. All four of their last Premier League matches have fallen under the 2.5 goal line and with perhaps some heavy legs following their clash with Real Sociedad on Thursday, one goal could be enough to take this one.
Regular readers of this column (hello mum) will be aware of the pain that scorches through my body whenever James Ward-Prowse making the England squad is mentioned. His omission from the Euro 2020 squad signalled a sickening end to two years of backing him at inflated prices - some as big as 16/1 - to make the final squad.
There might be a bit of payback coming my way if Callum Wilson can keep scoring goals. He was part of my ante-post portfolio at the start of the season at prices ranging from 11/1 down to 6/1 to make the World Cup squad. All looked lost when his body failed him after a bright start but his leading role in this wonderfully robust Newcastle side after regaining fitness has catapulted him back into England contention. He is now 11/10. Don't break my heart again, Gareth.
Wilson is a streaky striker when in the mood, and with his motivation levels sky high he rates as the most likely first goalscorer at St Mary's even if his 7/2 price with Sky Bet is about right. In their last 10 Premier League games only three Premier League goals have been scored by Southampton attacking players, so it does make the reliability of Wilson's finishing, despite the skinny price, stand out when assessing that market.
Patrick Vieira is a manager that for some reason struggles to inspire his teams away from home. Since taking over last season, Palace are posting relegation performance metrics when it comes to their attacking numbers and overall record. He has won just four of his 24 away games - one of those was at Manchester City, unbelievably. In those games their total expected goals return of 23.15 is the lowest total posted by any Premier League side not to have been promoted or relegated in that period.
Vieira had similar problems scoring goals on the road at Nice, where his team averaged just 0.9 goals per 90 minutes in his 37 matches managing the French side away from home. Perhaps his possession-based, controlled style is tough to implement when opposition teams play with more belief at home. Having watched them play at Leicester and Everton, I am completely against Palace this weekend against an improving West Ham side who have won nine of their last 13 games in all competitions, including their last three Premier League home games. The 10/11 with Sky Bet on a Hammers win should land.
When assessing the quality of forward players missing across both teams, added to the relentless fixture list since October 1, it's easy to foresee this clash not being the best version of itself. Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are out for Liverpool whilst Heung-Min Son, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski are massive absentees for Spurs as their ability to play quickly in transition is now severely impacted.
Spurs have been relying on second-half rallies and goals from set pieces to escape some sticky situations but Liverpool are a very tough team to score against from such scenarios - them and West Ham are only two teams yet to concede from a corner this season. I can see Spurs struggling to create many openings from open play, especially without the speed and directness of Son who scored in both fixtures against Liverpool last season.
However, Liverpool don't exactly fill with me confidence either in the goals department away from home against a likely Tottenham low block. Jurgen Klopp spoke after the Napoli win of "having to fight through and then the real football that we can play can come back" which screams to me he'll be playing with more security than usual in order to keep Alisson's goal protected. The markets are foreseeing a bit of a goal frenzy, with the game more likely to go over 2.5 goals than under. I disagree. Back a low-scoring affair.
