Everton plunged into 19th spot in table after receiving 10-point deduction for breaking Financial Fair Play rules; underlying data suggests Sean Dyche's side should sit ninth in table without deduction; watch Everton vs Man Utd live on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm; kick-off 4.30pm
Friday 24 November 2023 12:47, UK
Everton host Manchester United under the Sky cameras on Sunday with the Toffees looking to bounce back in style after their 10-point deduction - and the underlying numbers suggest Sean Dyche's side certainly have the capability.
Everton's deduction has dropped them from 14th to 19th in the table. The merits of which are now the main talking points around the club, overshadowing significant improvements made under Dyche this season.
Whether or not this is a good year for Everton to get the deduction is also commonly discussed. But not because of Everton's play - more relating to this season's newly-promoted sides, who are accumulating points at a historically low rate.
Regardless of that latter point, it should be Everton's performances that warrant this confidence.
Fourteenth after 12 games had, perhaps, surprised a few people prior to the deduction, given the club's final-day survival last season and minimal summer investment - but Everton's form has been better than that.
Opta's expected goals model currently ranks Everton's attack as a top-10 unit this season, while their defence has been even better, currently ranking sixth best.
Expected goal difference is an increasingly relied-upon statistic for clubs as a true performance indicator. Speaking with Traning Ground Guru, Everton director of football Kevin Thelwell said: "Expected goals difference is probably the strongest marker of success at the moment and where you are against that number generally determines where you're going to end up."
Indeed, most clubs finished within a couple of positions of their final Premier League finish in this table last term. Everton were 16th.
That metric currently ranks Everton as ninth in the Premier League this season, above Manchester United and early pace setters Tottenham. Essentially, meaning Everton are regularly creating better chances than they are conceding - giving them a better platform to win from.
Additionally, Opta's expected points table also says the Toffees should have been sat ninth in the table going into matchday 13 - if xG had its way and the the club hadn't received the points deduction.
This positive difference between attack and defence is something Everton have been without for a couple of seasons, emphasising Dyche's work. For context, the Toffees are creating more than they concede over a longer period of games than at any point since Carlo Ancelotti first took charge.
To achieve this, Dyche has helped elevate his side's play at both ends of the pitch. Everton are compact in defence, posting some of the more combative and energetic numbers. They rank second for distance covered and first for aerial duels won, tackles and pressures this season - all improvements from the year before.
On the ball, it's quality not quantity. Dyche doesn't want his side to have long spells of possession - Everton have lost the last 10 games in which they've had at least 60 per cent possession. In contrast, their last 11 wins have all come without the majority of possession.
When they do have the ball, they play in the right areas. Everton have lost possession in their own third less often than any other club - improving from eighth last season. They have also recorded the second-highest expected goals from set-pieces this season, behind only Brentford.
Of course, teams are judged on results, not performances. Had Everton been more clinical at both ends over their first 12 games, their improvements would be more established. Yet, the way Everton are playing is putting them in a position to achieve success more often.
A 10-point deduction would have comfortably relegated Everton in the last two seasons. This year, after his first full summer at the club, Dyche's progress has the Toffees playing like a midtable, even top-half side.
That form should distance Everton from the relegation picture, regardless of whether this deduction remains.
