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Friday 10 May 2024 15:28, UK
Our top tipster Jones Knows unleashes his best bets across the Premier League weekend as he eyes the 7/1 on Ryan Christie to be carded for Bournemouth.
The best bet trebles have hit the buffers at the wrong time of the season. Playing such big-priced bets where you need to nail lots of variables to bang home a winner means these aren't going to win every week but a run of seven weeks without a return is proving frustrating.
Has it been as bad as it looks? In typical fashion, I decided to run the numbers to see how each leg of the treble has got on over the last 10 weeks as it felt like we'd been hitting the bar.
And the results suggest that is absolutely the case. We've been let down by one leg in five of the last six weeks, including last weekend where my willingness to take on Arsenal at the prices by backing Bournemouth +2 cost us a 12/1 winner and another point in the bin.
If you collate all the individual selections over the last 10 weeks, where the prices range from 4/6 up to 2/1, the results are profitable.
In that time, there have been 31 selections advised as part of the best bet treble and 22 of those have won. That's a 71 per cent strike rate meaning if you take a rough guide of the price involved, which would be Evens, the return from a level stakes would be +13 to that estimation. Anyone who takes this game seriously will tell you that's a superb return on investment for prices that are readily available. Hopefully some of you readers have been playing it that way.
That said, for those that are willing to play the long game, one of these trebles, based on those results, should land in the final two weeks of the season. We're not too far away.
Luton have to go big or go home.
When a team need to win, their corner count can see a huge spike and Luton play to win corners by working the wing backs into advanced areas and sending balls into the box. West Ham defend deep under Moyes so will be vulnerable to Luton's ability to win corners - as seen in the reverse fixture where Luton won nine.
They are 5/6 with Sky Bet to win five or more here and that looks a fantastic bet to play.
The under 3.5 goals line at 4/5 with Sky Bet is the standout play at the prices in Manchester United vs Arsenal as I think Mikel Arteta will be going there in "job done" mode with eyes on a clean sheet.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa are becoming a very easy team to score against.
Over the last 15 Premier League games, they've averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.91 which is the fourth worst in the Premier League - even worse than Sheffield United. When assessing their big chance conceded data it gets worse - in the last 15 games only Luton have offered up more "big chances" as defined by Opta - that's 42 in 15 games to an average of 2.8 per game.
And Liverpool are the kings of creating those big chances - no team have created more this season than their 95.
Backing Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
Matthew Donohue takes charge of his first Premier League game here - and I'm always keen to back a cards angle when a referee steps into this environment for the first time. Ryan Christie to be carded is where my money will be going at 13/2 with Sky Bet. The tenacious Scot has become the destroyer for Andoni Iraola - if a player is there to be tackled, Christie will tackle him.
This is leading to a high foul tendency developing in his game, something which was on full show in the defeat to Arsenal last weekend where he was lucky to escape a red card for a foul on Bukayo Saka before eventually being carded later in the game. He's now made 23 fouls in his last 12 starts and has been shown a yellow in six of his last 22 appearances. His price is simply too big.
