Burnley 13 points worse off than at same stage last year
Monday 26 November 2018 18:37, UK
From Proudsville to the brink of the relegation zone, Burnley have suffered a slump like no other Premier League side. We examine their slide and whether they can turn it around...
What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago Burnley were seventh in the Premier League and a couple of weeks away from a leap into the top four which had boss Sean Dyche declaring himself the "proudest man in Proudsville".
Fast forward to the present and Burnley are hovering dangerously above the relegation zone, 13 points worse off than at the same stage last season, having conceded 16 goals more. No Premier League team has suffered a worse drop-off in that time.
The reality is bad enough, but Opta's Expected Goals metric underlines their problems at both ends of the pitch: Burnley are second bottom for Expected Goals for and against. In other words, they're not creating enough good scoring opportunities but they're giving plenty of them away.
So how has it gone so wrong? And can Burnley get back on track? Ahead of their crunch Monday Night Football clash with Newcastle, we take a look…
The price of success
One of the results of Burnley's seventh-place finish last season was an early entry into the Europa League. Eleven days after the World Cup final, Burnley were back in competitive action in a second qualifying round first leg tie with Aberdeen on July 26.
After seeing off Aberdeen, their Premier League opener was sandwiched by matches with Istanbul Basaksehir in the next round, before they were knocked out by Olympiacos on August 30. Three days later Burnley were beaten at home to Manchester United and the burden of playing 10 competitive games by September 2 had taken its toll.
Tiredness and injuries
Bar the back-to-back Premier League wins over Bournemouth and Cardiff, the hangover from that fast start appears to have weighed on Dyche's men and Newcastle boss Rafa Benitez believes tiredness has taken its toll. "I have had this experience (of Europe) and it is quite difficult to manage," he said.
The stats back up that impression, with Burnley dropping from fourth in the distance covered stats at the end of last season to 12th going into this round of games. Dyche has also pointed to the injuries his side have suffered.
Summer signing Ben Gibson has been sidelined since August after a hernia operation, while first-team regulars Steven Defour, Robbie Brady, Stephen Ward and James Tarkowski are among the names to have missed Premier League game time.
Fine margins
In a league of fine margins, that has been a key factor. Burnley won 1-0 on 12 occasions last season but the results have swung the other way this term.
"We all know as players that 1-0 wins can easily become 0-0 draws or 1-0 defeats," Jamie Carragher told Monday Night Football earlier this month. "Sometimes you need a little bit of luck. Maybe it is going against them. So I always felt that would change.
"What will also really disappoint Dyche is when we look at the running numbers.
"The reason it is so worrying is that Burnley are a team who are not in possession of the ball a lot but they try to make it difficult for teams by pressing them, being in their face, playing for 90 minutes and hanging on at certain times.
"Given that they are losing games, you'd think they'd be going all out to get back in it."
Reality check
So, can Dyche turn it around? Can he find a way to recapture the heady days of this time last year, when Burnley were battling with the best teams, high up the table?
The hope will be that Burnley can come back refreshed and rejuvenated after the international break. There appears to be confidence in the camp they can do just that, with defender Charlie Taylor telling Sky Sports his manager has taken a composed, measured approach with his players, refusing to panic.
Perspective is key, too. "Without being disrespectful to Burnley, last season was the freak," said Carragher. "This is not the freak. What Sean Dyche and that squad did last season was off the scale. It was a fantastic season and it was never going to be the same."
What Sean Dyche and that squad did last season was off the scale. It was never going to be the same.
Burnley aren't the first team to struggle to back up a breakout campaign. But if their past year has taught them anything it is that fortunes can change fast - and a win over Newcastle on Monday night could be the kick-start Dyche's men need.
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