David Luiz to hit target and second half goals at Selhurst Park - Jones Knows betting column
"I'm expecting David Luiz to threaten - he's had four shots on goal in the Premier League since Mikel Arteta took charge and has had the fifth most shots of any Arsenal player this season."
Last Updated: 10/01/20 3:48pm
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
After finishing 2019 in profit and with some exciting ante-post punts to keep me warm in the winter, I'm putting my fingers to my ears to cancel out the resolution brigade and shouting "New Year, Same Me."
Looking back across my 2019 staking, there's one clear problem I need to address: multiple bets. It's my Kryptonite. My weakness.
Yankees, Goliaths, Trixies, you've all got to go guys. You may sound like harmless American based sports teams but your ways have eaten into my margins.
The straw that broke the camel's back came on Boxing Day - I had three horse racing bets at 5/1, 7/2 and 14/1. The first two both ran stinkers, so the final leg didn't matter. Of course, that final leg 14/1 shot duly romped home but no funds winged their way to my betting account.
How can you find a 14/1 winner and still not win? Multiples are now the enemy.
Chasing the 'get rich quick' dream only helps the bookmakers. And I have no interest in their well-being.
In terms of betting, I'm now a single man.
I've got two selections to attack this weekend. Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +15.
It's time to see if Jones Knows...
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (Saturday, 12.30 kick-off): 1pt on David Luiz to have a shot on target and the second half to produce the most goals (6/1 with Sky Bet)
David Luiz has certainly been playing with plenty of enthusiasm under Mikel Arteta, whose management style has "reinvigorated" Arsenal, according to the Brazilian.
It's an impressive feat from Arteta to get the Gunners playing with such unity and tempo just a few weeks into the job, although that probably says more about Unai Emery's final few weeks than Arteta being the second coming of Pep Guardiola. One thing Arteta has maintained from the Emery era is Arsenal's strength from set-pieces with two of the three goals scored in the league under his watch coming via that route, taking their total set-piece goals scored to nine this season - only Bournemouth have scored more (10).
Two of those goals came in the reverse fixture at The Emirates against Palace, a 2-2 draw where Luiz and Sokratis both found the net. I'm expecting both of those two to threaten Palace's goal again, especially Luiz, who has had four shots on goal in the Premier League since Arteta took charge and has had the fifth most shots of any Arsenal player this season.
His love of firing speculative attempts from distance and his threat in the air makes him an interesting betting proposition at Selhurst Park. He's 20/1 to score first and 7/1 to score anytime but it's the shots market that has pricked my punting ears with him to have one or more shots on target forming half of my recommended wager with Sky Bet.
The other part involves the second half producing more goals than the first, which is generously priced up at Evens. Palace have seen just three first-half goals scored in their 10 home matches this season with 15 goals coming after the break. Roy Hodgson will undoubtedly keep things tight again early on with the visit of a 'big six' team.
Both Liverpool and Leicester went in 0-0 in their trips to Selhurst Park while Manchester City didn't open the scoring until the 39th minute. Arsenal are also notorious slow starters on the road, scoring just three goals themselves before the break.
Jones Knows: Back 6/1 shot here!
David Luiz to have a shot on target & second half to produce the most goals
Leicester vs Southampton (Saturday, 3pm kick-off): 1pt on James Ward-Prowse to make five or more tackles (5/1 with Sky Bet)
Obviously, this isn't a conventional market and probably isn't a bet for everyone to get a kick out of, but we're here to make a profit and this price is simply too big to ignore.
Labelled as a "machine" by his boss Ralph Hasenhuttl after playing five games in 15 days over the festive period, James Ward-Prowse is fast becoming Hasenhuttl's destroyer in the Southampton midfield.
This is a manager who likes his team to get into the faces of his opposition in order to recover possession and Ward-Prowse is delivering huge tackling numbers in recent weeks. In his last three Premier League games, the Saints midfield general has made 23 tackles; nine in both the victories over Chelsea and Tottenham and five against Crystal Palace. Only on nine occasions this season has a player recorded nine or more tackles in a game with Ward-Prowse responsible for two of those.
That is eye-watering data and it's worth investing in him to see if he can continue this relentless tackling run.
I'm expecting him to be in the thick of the action up against James Maddison - if he's passed fit - in a game that should be played at a fierce tempo with Saints surely keen on restoring some pride after getting mauled 9-0 in the reverse fixture.
Bring your tackling boots, James, it's feeding time.
What does Opta define as a tackle?
A tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in a ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the player in possession.
The tackled player must clearly be in possession of the ball before the tackle is made.
A tackle won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”.
A tackle lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player.
Super 6 fixtures: Chelsea vs Burnley; Everton vs Brighton; Leicester vs Southampton; Manchester United vs Norwich; Wolves vs Newcastle; Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday