Premier League clubs' best and worst possible final positions in table

Seven Premier League teams will be playing in Europe next season in the Champions League, Europa League or the new Europa Conference League - but how high could your club finish... and how low could they go?


Manchester City are on the brink of securing the Premier League title - but how high or low could your club finish this season?

Most clubs have only five games left to seal their fate, but, on paper, 19 clubs are still challenging for the title, to qualify for Europe or avoid relegation.

Data guru Ben Mayhew has calculated each club's range of possible final league positions and found only Sheffield United have nothing to play for besides pride during the remainder of this season.

Technically, Manchester United and Leicester could steal the crown from under City's noses if results went their way in spectacular fashion, while every team down to 11th-placed Aston Villa could, theoretically, finish in the top four.

Wolves, Crystal Palace and Southampton could qualify for the Europa League or the Europa Conference League - but are also still at risk of relegation in the event of complete capitulation and results conspired against them.

Newcastle and Brighton could still end the season in the top half, or drop to the Championship, while Fulham and West Brom still have the potential to finish in 12th and 13th, respectively.

What are the chances?

Mayhew has also simulated every possible result from the remaining games and calculated the probabilities of each club's possible final positions.

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The results suggest Manchester United have a 90-per-cent chance of finishing as runners-up, while Leicester have the same chance of finishing in the top four - but the final top-four spot appears to be between Chelsea and Liverpool.

How it works

Each club’s attacking and defensive strength have been rated using an expected goals model, which measures the quality of chances they create and allow.

These ratings were then used to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to measure the probability of each club finishing in each league position.

Arsenal have a 20-per-cent possibility of finishing in the bottom half of the table for the first time in 26 years, while there are fine margins between Crystal Palace in 12th and Brighton in 17th.

But the odds really are stacked against West Brom and Fulham. The Cottagers have a meagre seven-per-cent chance of survival, but the Baggies will need the greatest of escapes - estimated at just 0.12 per cent.

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