MK Dons fancied to win under new boss; Brighton can end Leicester run
Friday 22 November 2019 12:18, UK
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
One of the key attributes of being a successful punter is the ability to be ruthless with decision making.
It's an area I continuously struggle with. My heart can win the battle with head on occasions.
With that in mind, I could learn a lot from Daniel Levy. He pulled the trigger on the loveable Mauricio Pochettino earlier this week and appointed Jose Mourinho before anyone had time to take stock of the situation.
When our colleagues at Sky Sports News were breaking the remarkable story it was like getting hit with a right hook by Mike Tyson, quickly followed by a Tyson left. Bang, bang, indeed.
Talks between Levy and Mourinho's men were being conducted while poor Pochettino was still in the hot seat.
This is next-level ruthlessness we're dealing with here.
I had always wondered who was that chap in the forest that shot Bambi's mum. Levy has to be chief suspect now.
But will this act of ruthlessness turn into feelings of ruefulness over time? Has Levy ditched one of the world's best for one that is past his sell-by date?
To me, seeing Mourinho in the Spurs clobber looks a bit icky.
I've always been fond of Spurs, especially during the Pochettino era. He showed you can mix it on a budget with the big boys through shrewd coaching and an eye for talent. His team were capable of greatness and provided entertainment, achieved with respect and class, but you wouldn't trust them to see a job through. That made them likeable.
Now, under Mourinho, there will be an expectation to win at all costs. That's the ruthless path Levy has chosen. We're all going to have to get used to it.
The beauty of this world we live in is that if you have a strong opinion on whether Mourinho will flop or fly, you can put your money where your mouth is. Personally, I'd need to see the Mourinho project for a few months until committing to a long-term betting angle but for those that think they have it cracked, Sky Bet have an array of specials to ponder:
On the menu this weekend for us, fresh from a 25/1 winner two weeks ago, is a Saturday double to attack that has been boosted from 11/2 to 13/2 by Sky Bet.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +13 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows...
The Amex seems to bring the best out of Brighton, who have recorded some big numbers in their six home matches.
Graham Potter has got to work quickly in revamping the style of football and only Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea have recorded higher expected goals numbers at home than Brighton (10.68). Also, only Southampton have left the south coast with three points in the Premier League but the Seagulls had to play 60 minutes with 10 men which gives that result an unreliable look.
Leicester will bid to become the second team to win at the Amex but look woefully under-priced to do so at Evens. Brendan Rodgers' side are in sublime form, winning their last five games in all competitions but the data of their performance levels suggest it's an unsustainable run that will come to an end soon.
Double Brighton to win or draw with MK Dons.
An angle I like to follow in football betting is following a team in their first home game after a manager has been sacked.
From 30 mid-season managerial changes in the top four tiers of English football since the start of last season, 18 teams have won their next home fixture, yielding a strong level stakes return profit - an angle we exploited to good effect earlier this campaign when Mark Bowen won his first home game in charge of Reading.
It's human nature that a change in leadership will enhance motivation levels and footballers are a prime example of this as performance and work-rate increases with a new man at the helm. A feelgood factor in the stands is also an angle to consider with the locals perhaps more forgiving of the players in the new regime.
Russell Martin takes charge of his first home game at MK Dons after replacing Paul Tisdale and his boys are taken to run out victorious against Rotherham, despite being 15 places lower in Sky Bet League One. MK were unfortunate to lose 1-0 at Bolton last weekend where Martin seemed to get a response out of his players after some dismal performances in the final weeks of Tisdale's reign.
Yes. You can. It's winnable. Four players have won the jackpot this season already from just 16 rounds of Super 6. And remember, it's free to play!
