Manchester United vs Manchester City. Premier League.
Old TraffordAttendance73,086.
Raphael Varane faces four to five weeks on the sidelines with a hamstring injury; watch Man Utd vs Man City live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 11.30am on Saturday; kick-off 12.30pm
Saturday 6 November 2021 17:47, UK
Team news, stats and prediction ahead of Man Utd vs Man City in the Premier League on Saturday; kick-off 12.30pm.
Manchester United have defensive issues ahead of their Premier League derby clash with Manchester City at Old Trafford.
Raphael Varane faces four to five weeks on the sidelines with a hamstring injury suffered during the Champions League game against Atalanta, while Victor Lindelof faces a fitness test on the knock that forced him to miss Tuesday's 2-2 draw.
Paul Pogba serves the second game of a three-match domestic ban but Fred should return in midfield after being benched in Italy.
Man City centre-back Aymeric Laporte is suspended after being sent off in last week's loss to Crystal Palace.
Manager Pep Guardiola will also check on Kyle Walker after the England full-back suffered a foot injury against Club Brugge on Wednesday. Winger Ferran Torres (foot) is City's only other notable absentee.
Man Utd vs Man City is live on Sky Sports Premier League from 11.30pm on Saturday; kick-off 12.30pm. Kelly Cates will be joined by Roy Keane, Graeme Souness and Micah Richards in the studio and Gary Neville on the gantry with Martin Tyler for co-commentary.
Sky Sports customers can watch in-game clips in the live match blog on the Sky Sports website and app. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel shortly after the final whistle.
Watch all the post-match analysis and interviews on Sky Sports Premier League, plus read the latest features, pundit and manager reaction on the Sky Sports website and app.
I really wanted to make a case for backing Manchester United when first looking at the 4/1 odds available for a home win. United are unbeaten in the last four Premier League meetings with City and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is the only manager Pep Guardiola has lost against more than he has won in his managerial career (minimum four meetings) with Ole masterminding four wins over City. The counter-attack style is one that City can struggle against.
However, the racing adage of never trusting one run in isolation is firmly on my mind when assessing United's win over Tottenham. As Roy Keane said, it was the perfect game for United against such a lacklustre Spurs team. They'll set up similarly with City on their patch, hoping Pep's boys will continue to underperform in front of goal. This season, City are averaging their fewest goals per game (2.00) and have their worst shot conversion rate (11.2 per cent) in any of their six Premier League seasons under Guardiola.
Despite the negative look to those numbers, two goals per game is still a whopping average and their overall performance metrics are still as good as ever. Only Liverpool have a higher expected goals return per game (2.4) and post more shots per game (17.9), whereas City still average the most opposition box touches per game (40.4) - a key indicator that teams are still struggling to live with Pep's style.
And that is exactly what will happen to United, especially without the influence of Raphael Varane. It may take time for City to prise open the deep-block but I'm happy to back them to achieve it.
My main betting attack on the match will centre around the performance of Joao Cancelo.
He is fast becoming City's most important player in terms of chance creation while Kevin De Bruyne bids to rediscover his true self. His link play with Jack Grealish down the left is seriously impressive and results in the full-back enjoying plenty of space to work with in the final third.
And once he gets into these dangerous positions, he's happy to fire shots at goal, posting 15 in his last five starts across all competitions. With City expected to dominate territory, I'd expect him to go close to keeping up that average in this game too. That makes the 6/5 with Sky Bet for him to have two or more shots at goal worth snapping up. The 16/1 on him scoring from outside the area also is worth some consideration.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Joao Cancelo to have two or more shots (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Peter Smith is joined by Sky Sports football journalists Richard Morgan and Ben Grounds to discuss the huge Saturday lunchtime showdown between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford.
PART 1 | How are the two rivals shaping up for the big clash? We weigh up how Man Utd's injury concerns in defence could affect their approach, while we ask whether Jack Grealish is living up to his big price tag and the reasons behind some inconsistent form from the defending champions. Is this match now a must-win for them with Chelsea pulling clear at the top of the Premier League?
PART 2 | Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has a winning record against Pep Guardiola so what's the secret to his success in this rivalry? And how will the clash go on Saturday? We make our big match predictions!
